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Search: Posts Made By: bdschobel
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 07-08-2020, 09:24 AM
Replies: 1,276
Views: 43,123
Posted By bdschobel
So do I. This is pandering to the mob. Bruce

So do I. This is pandering to the mob.

Bruce
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 07-08-2020, 09:22 AM
Replies: 1,276
Views: 43,123
Posted By bdschobel
"Lies" is a pretty strong word because it...

"Lies" is a pretty strong word because it requires a false statement that the speaker knows is false -- in contrast to a simple error, a false statement that the speaker believes is true.

Amy...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 07-08-2020, 09:17 AM
Replies: 1,276
Views: 43,123
Posted By bdschobel
I don't see how you can force an employer to...

I don't see how you can force an employer to retain you -- or that you would want to stay somewhere if the employer wants you gone. The hypothetical situation becomes weirder and weirder as the size...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 07-08-2020, 09:13 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 327
Posted By bdschobel
Very weird and sad case. At some point, people...

Very weird and sad case. At some point, people should have just left them alone. Certainly when the boy became an adult. Her weird family is an interesting side story.

Bruce
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 07-04-2020, 10:54 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 1,456
Posted By bdschobel
Let's distinguish between a pregnancy and a FIRST...

Let's distinguish between a pregnancy and a FIRST pregnancy. Lots of women over 40 become pregnant and have children, but most of those women had their first pregnancies in their 20s. The probability...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 07-02-2020, 04:23 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 1,456
Posted By bdschobel
Old people with dementia become rather primitive...

Old people with dementia become rather primitive in many cases. This isn't news.

Bruce
Forum: Chat with the Candidates & Exam Committee 07-02-2020, 04:21 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 1,436
Posted By bdschobel
This is perfectly stated, so I won't try to say...

This is perfectly stated, so I won't try to say it even better. I am really, deeply angry and concerned about police violence -- against black people, of course, who bear the brunt of it, but against...
Forum: Chat with the Candidates & Exam Committee 07-02-2020, 04:17 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 1,436
Posted By bdschobel
I didn't, either. These "UAP" initiatives are...

I didn't, either. These "UAP" initiatives are like zombies. They just keep coming, again and again, and never really die, no matter how many times the membership rejects them. I never want to see an...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 07-02-2020, 01:33 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 1,456
Posted By bdschobel
In a sense, anyone who is breathing at 101 is an...

In a sense, anyone who is breathing at 101 is an outlier!!! I hope I live that long.

Bruce
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 07-02-2020, 01:24 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 1,456
Posted By bdschobel
You gotta have Patience! :) Same here. ...

You gotta have Patience! :)

Same here.

Bruce
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 07-02-2020, 01:19 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 1,456
Posted By bdschobel
I wasn't there. :) Not really sure. ...

I wasn't there. :)

Not really sure.

Bruce
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 07-02-2020, 01:16 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 1,456
Posted By bdschobel
Ancient? That's a bit strong. Hundreds of...

Ancient? That's a bit strong. Hundreds of thousands of women in their 40s have children; some do so in their 50s. Even decades ago, Diana Ross (of the Supremes) had twins at age 46 or something like...
Forum: Diversions 06-26-2020, 11:10 AM
Replies: 179
Views: 2,735
Posted By bdschobel
That's what I said :( Bruce

That's what I said :(

Bruce
Forum: Pension - Social Security 06-25-2020, 05:17 PM
Replies: 1,504
Views: 330,253
Posted By bdschobel
Well, I hedged my bets with "as much as 20...

Well, I hedged my bets with "as much as 20 percent." Lots can happen between now and year-end. The reduction may turn out to be 10 percent or so. That's still a lot.

Bruce
Forum: Pension - Social Security 06-25-2020, 04:49 PM
Replies: 1,504
Views: 330,253
Posted By bdschobel
Even many people who are still employed are...

Even many people who are still employed are earning less. And, of course, roughly 1 in 7 is unemployed.

Bruce
Forum: Pension - Social Security 06-25-2020, 04:27 PM
Replies: 1,504
Views: 330,253
Posted By bdschobel
The reduction in future liability is really quite...

The reduction in future liability is really quite small. Close to 3 million Americans die annually, most of them elderly, of course. An additional 100,000 or so really doesn't make that big a...
Forum: Pension - Social Security 06-25-2020, 04:19 PM
Replies: 1,504
Views: 330,253
Posted By bdschobel
At least Social Security doesn't have that...

At least Social Security doesn't have that problem. Its assets are all redeemable at par, any time.

Bruce
Forum: Pension - Social Security 06-25-2020, 03:47 PM
Replies: 1,504
Views: 330,253
Posted By bdschobel
The reduction in outgo is literally dwarfed by...

The reduction in outgo is literally dwarfed by the reduction in revenue. There are some other, relatively minor effects, like a reduction in benefits for anyone born in 1960.

Bruce
Forum: Diversions 06-24-2020, 09:33 AM
Replies: 179
Views: 2,735
Posted By bdschobel
Nigeria is also the most populous African...

Nigeria is also the most populous African country, so I thought it's the one from which most of us would know someone. Interestingly, Ethiopia, another large, populous African country that's in the...
Forum: Diversions 06-22-2020, 10:29 AM
Replies: 179
Views: 2,735
Posted By bdschobel
Yeah, why? Two of my granddaughters have...

Yeah, why?

Two of my granddaughters have been living with me since March 15 (due to coronavirus fears in NYC), and they live and breathe Frozen day and night. I couldn't even think of a name...
Forum: General Actuarial 04-25-2020, 07:09 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 2,084
Posted By bdschobel
No, I got something of value! :) Bruce

No, I got something of value! :)

Bruce
Forum: Pension - Social Security 04-23-2020, 03:40 PM
Replies: 1,504
Views: 330,253
Posted By bdschobel
Same old, same old. Does not reflect effects of...

Same old, same old. Does not reflect effects of coronavirus.

The 2019 and 2020 Trustees Reports are really almost identical. Just wait until 2021!!! :(

Bruce
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-20-2020, 01:35 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 765
Posted By bdschobel
My son is paying their nanny -- a lot! -- while...

My son is paying their nanny -- a lot! -- while he and his family, including both little children, have been in Florida with me since March 15. That seems exceedingly generous, but it's not my money....
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-20-2020, 08:43 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 765
Posted By bdschobel
I have no problem letting my pool guy and...

I have no problem letting my pool guy and landscapers show up and do their jobs. I happily accept packages from UPS. But I don't let outsiders into my house.

Bruce
Forum: Financial Mathematics 04-20-2020, 08:38 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 359
Posted By bdschobel
I agree with the previous answers. The "real"...

I agree with the previous answers. The "real" rate of interest, after accounting for taxes and inflation, is:

(1+0.12*.7)/1.05-1=3.238095%

Bruce
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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