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Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-26-2020, 09:09 PM
Replies: 132
Views: 4,344
Posted By jraven
Brecht was all about making the familiar strange...

Brecht was all about making the familiar strange (to prevent the audience from losing themselves in the entertainment, and instead make them think critically about what's being presented). Seems like...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-25-2020, 07:26 PM
Replies: 4,051
Views: 386,991
Posted By jraven
Out of an abundance of boredom I found the "pun"....

Out of an abundance of boredom I found the "pun". From The Gentleman's Magazine (1781), Vol. LI p. 324 (editor's footnote)...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-25-2020, 06:58 PM
Replies: 4,051
Views: 386,991
Posted By jraven
Wow. I never knew that he was the source of...

Wow. I never knew that he was the source of "steal my thunder". I always assumed it was metaphorical -- i.e. you did something impressive (the lightning) and someone else takes credit for the...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-22-2020, 12:54 PM
Replies: 8,484
Views: 665,564
Posted By jraven
Chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine has been tested as...

Chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine has been tested as a treatment for a multitude of viruses -- various flus, colds, MERS, SARS, etc. My understanding is the results were always the same -- it had some...
Forum: Careers - Employment 05-17-2020, 01:26 PM
Replies: 84
Views: 6,749
Posted By jraven
I assume Lucy meant the latter -- as you say,...

I assume Lucy meant the latter -- as you say, there are models where you can "program" different height settings, so that the desk will automatically change to a given height at the press of a...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-01-2020, 01:43 PM
Replies: 61
Views: 1,528
Posted By jraven
A lot of the rationales given for shifting to...

A lot of the rationales given for shifting to open offices are nonsense anyway. (The arguments sound reasonable, but aren't backed up by actual testing.) The article...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-01-2020, 11:28 AM
Replies: 61
Views: 1,528
Posted By jraven
I should probably start carrying a capacitive pen...

I should probably start carrying a capacitive pen when I go out. So many businesses have gone to touch screen interfaces -- not just for payment, which can be overcome with touchless systems, but...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 05-01-2020, 09:54 AM
Replies: 61
Views: 1,528
Posted By jraven
Fatter tails? I don't know that I'd consider that...

Fatter tails? I don't know that I'd consider that "new"... Americans have been getting increasingly fatter tails for several decades.

(Edit: I probably should have mentioned that's re:...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-25-2020, 06:40 PM
Replies: 8,484
Views: 665,564
Posted By jraven
In the aftermath of 9/11 a lot of people thought...

In the aftermath of 9/11 a lot of people thought that Rudy Giuliani was the bees knees. That changed when their panic eventually subsided and their memories of the before-times returned. I expect the...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-25-2020, 04:29 PM
Replies: 8,484
Views: 665,564
Posted By jraven
I suppose we should take some solace in the fact...

I suppose we should take some solace in the fact that the WHO has finally decided to go with a conservative null hypothesis (no acquired immunity), given that their previous null hypotheses (no human...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-15-2020, 01:06 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 851
Posted By jraven
Yeah, when my teenage son was quarantined for two...

Yeah, when my teenage son was quarantined for two weeks after COVID-19 exposure I read up on the incubation period estimates... which did not put my mind at ease.

(As I recall, the original 14 day...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-07-2020, 02:10 PM
Replies: 8,484
Views: 665,564
Posted By jraven
I should probably add that I don't think this is...

I should probably add that I don't think this is a problem with the numbers New Jersey's is releasing -- I didn't see anything on NJ's COVID site that mentioned recoveries. It's more an issue of what...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-07-2020, 01:57 PM
Replies: 8,484
Views: 665,564
Posted By jraven
If you go to the US state level view you'll see...

If you go to the US state level view you'll see that New Jersey has 92 recoveries out of 44,416 total cases (recoveries = total cases - active cases - deaths). There's no way that's correct. (By way...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-06-2020, 02:58 PM
Replies: 2,509
Views: 206,378
Posted By jraven
And now you understand why they must...

And now you understand why they must self-isolate. Preferably without internet access... I hear you can spread viruses that way too.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 04-02-2020, 08:08 PM
Replies: 8,484
Views: 665,564
Posted By jraven
The most recent claim I've seen put the...

The most recent claim I've seen put the sensitivity of (some of) the PCR-based COVID-19 tests at around 70% (i.e. 30% of infected patients will receive a false negative result). I've seen another...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-31-2020, 02:27 PM
Replies: 222
Views: 7,334
Posted By jraven
We had a chance to meet this young man, and boy...

We had a chance to meet this young man, and boy that's just a straight shooter with upper management written all over him.
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-31-2020, 01:03 PM
Replies: 222
Views: 7,334
Posted By jraven
Red Sneakers Effect...

Red Sneakers Effect (https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=45809)
Forum: Software & Technology 03-22-2020, 03:30 PM
Replies: 26
Views: 1,248
Posted By jraven
In addition to what everyone else has mentioned...

In addition to what everyone else has mentioned (Mario Kart, Smash, Snipperclips, Overcooked 1 & 2) we (10 year-old & me) had a lot of fun playing through Boxboy!+Boxgirl!. Only about a third of the...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-19-2020, 12:51 PM
Replies: 41
Views: 963
Posted By jraven
If you're going the PC route and you have a...

If you're going the PC route and you have a tolerable graphics card (mine is a budget card from a couple generations back and still does fine for most things) then in addition to the Steam store you...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-17-2020, 01:15 PM
Replies: 8,484
Views: 665,564
Posted By jraven
On a slightly more amusing note (at least to me),...

On a slightly more amusing note (at least to me), yesterday New Hampshire required restaurants and bars to switch to take-out only, effective at midnight. A major driver for the sudden policy change?...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-05-2020, 09:13 AM
Replies: 8,484
Views: 665,564
Posted By jraven
There are numerous examples of electronic devices...

There are numerous examples of electronic devices being seized at customs, or at the very least detained and subjected to search. Plus various cases of potentially state-supported industrial...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 03-05-2020, 08:41 AM
Replies: 8,484
Views: 665,564
Posted By jraven
Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical employee is told to...

Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical employee is told to self-quarantine, but decides to ignore that and attend a Dartmouth business school event. Subsequently confirmed to have been ill with COVID-19.
...
Forum: Life 02-07-2020, 06:58 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 1,100
Posted By jraven
If you're working with terminal reserves, then...

If you're working with terminal reserves, then the recursive formula for terminal reserves is
V_{t-1} = \frac{q DB + (1 - q) V_t}{1 + i} - NP

(assuming BOY premium and EOY DB payment and ignoring...
Forum: Life 02-04-2020, 02:40 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 1,100
Posted By jraven
Tabular cost of insurance is not the expected...

Tabular cost of insurance is not the expected cost of the death benefits paid -- it is (more or less) the expected cost of the NAR (net amount at risk, i.e. policy death benefit in excess of policy...
Forum: Non-Actuarial Topics 01-31-2020, 06:46 PM
Replies: 26
Views: 676
Posted By jraven
Assuming you connect the points with arcs from...

Assuming you connect the points with arcs from great circles (i.e. the arc you get on the surface of the sphere from intersecting the plane containing the two points and the center of the sphere with...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 300

 

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