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  #2021  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:25 PM
The_Polymath The_Polymath is offline
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Originally Posted by Woodrow View Post
Wait, what?

Now this disease is the fault of the Jews?

Are they disease vectors now?
75-85% of the transmission is via families

They have very large families and tend to ignore scientific advice

Now, does that sound like a good combination of variables to you?
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  #2022  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:26 PM
Howard100 Howard100 is offline
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Originally Posted by The_Polymath View Post
Can you not do research?

The underlying math behind pandemic models is not super complex.
(It's the assumptions that have very wide CIs)

Then take a look at the transmission rates from various countries.

And adjust your priors given we have R0 values in the 2-3 range.

Pictures have been posted im this thread explaining this.
Yeah, but models aren't designed to address individual risk. And what I'm doing personally is going to be based on my individual circumstance. Just like you and your decision on the trip to whatever island that is you're going to.
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  #2023  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted by The_Polymath View Post
75-85% of the transmission is via families

They have very large families and tend to ignore scientific advice

Now, does that sound like a good combination of variables to you?
those stupid damn dirty breeding jews! /red


what in the actual eff
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  #2024  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:28 PM
The_Polymath The_Polymath is offline
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Originally Posted by yoyo View Post
those stupid damn dirty breeding jews! /red


what in the actual eff
Keep ignoring reality and at risk groups.

Lets see how that works out for you in a pandemic
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  #2025  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:32 PM
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Sredni Vashtar Sredni Vashtar is offline
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Originally Posted by The_Polymath View Post
Keep ignoring reality and at risk groups.

Lets see how that works out for you in a pandemic
Racism is well known as the number 1 strategy to survive any catastrophe.
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  #2026  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
Ok, so, are you and your family currently self-quarantining?

I doubt it, I think you're leading your normal lives, same as Dgtatum.
I am, but I have minor cold symptoms. If I didn't I would just be practicing "social distancing".

In normal times I'd just be practicing "social distancing" right now, because the cold symptoms are pretty mild.

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Originally Posted by #Hawaii2019 View Post
meh. i don't get paid if i don't show up. i got kids to feed imo
Like most actuaries, I can work from home. So self-quarantine is cheap. I'm an extrovert, so it's unpleasant, but it's not a huge burden.

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Originally Posted by 3rookie View Post
It sounds like you would say that I should stock up on food, work from home, pull my kids out of school, and have no social interaction in person until further notice because it may save one life. If I fail to follow through on any one of these things then I am not doing my part to save a life, right?

Nothing personal, just attacking your post
No, there are lots of choices you can make between "ignore it, just go on with your life" and "lock yourself in a closet."

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Originally Posted by ElDucky View Post
But I already never do anything. What less can I do?
You're good. Unfortunately, I have a lot of stuff I like to do that I am not doing for now.

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Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
And you're doing that based on, what evidence or guidance exactly? Sounds like you're using it as an excuse to do what you want to do anyway.
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Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
When local public health authorities tell me limit social interaction, I'll follow the guidance. I see absolutely no reason to do that before someone with better information than me indicates it's a good idea.
So, where I live, my employer and local universities are taking fairly major steps to increase social distance. What I am doing is consistent with the guidance from local authorities. Of course, there is conflicting guidance, and I am learning towards the conservative end of the recommendations. But I corresponded with my PCP, who replied that he approved of what I was doing with respect to quarantining myself, and suggested I stay warm and hydrated and watch for difficulty breathing.


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Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
No I disagree with the conclusions you've come to based on the data available.

You're acting based on emotion not logic, you feel afraid because this is new and outside you're control, so you want to do something, anything, to feel back in control. So you're doing things you want to do anyway.
BS

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Originally Posted by BG5150 View Post
True. Only the truly reckless will be out hunting Pokemon!
Naw, that's relatively low risk. Just don't stand too close to others as you hunt, and don't cough on anyone, and hunting pokemon should be fine.

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Originally Posted by Howard100 View Post
I agree with this. I see a lot of arguments in here that sounds like "don't trust what authorities are telling you. Make up your own mind. What I'm doing is this and that. So you should probably do what I'm doing. If you're doing less, you're not doing enough. If you're doing more, it's probably panic. But make up your own mind with your own brain and you should come to the same conclusion as mine."
Try reading more carefully.
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  #2027  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by The_Polymath View Post
Keep ignoring reality and at risk groups.

Lets see how that works out for you in a pandemic
okay
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  #2028  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:35 PM
The_Polymath The_Polymath is offline
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Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
Racism is well known as the number 1 strategy to survive any catastrophe.
I would lay a large bet that Cuomo locked new rochelle down because he received advice similar to what I just stated.

They are a big risk group given objective realities. And you absolutely have to clamp that down before it spreads. Nothing to do with racism.
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  #2029  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:37 PM
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Korea thinks they have the virus contained, without any quarantines. 131 new cases today compared to 909 on February 29. That was aggressive testing and containment. Anyone not doing that will see huge outbreaks. So, which path does the US take?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/asia/...hnk/index.html

Quote:
Seoul, South Korea (CNN)South Korea's top public health official hopes that the country has already gone through the worst of the novel coronavirus outbreak that has infected thousands inside the country.

"We are hoping that we have passed the peak, taking the numbers into consideration, and cautiously expecting we have passed the peak," South Korean Health Minister Park Neunghoo said in an exclusive interview with CNN.

More than 7,300 coronavirus infections have been confirmed throughout South Korea, killing more than 50. It is one of the largest outbreaks outside mainland China, where the deadly virus was first identified. However, the number of new daily infections in South Korea has declined in recent days.

Park said that while he believes the aggregate number of infections is high, he is confident in the job South Korea did to combat the virus' spread and would advise other governments who are dealing with outbreaks to focus efforts on early testing and global cooperation.

The South Korean government has been among the most ambitious when it comes to providing the public with free and easy testing options. It has the ability run about 15,000 diagnostic test per day and has conducted 196,000 tests to date nationwide, free of charge. Authorities in the city of Goyang even set up drive-thru testing booths.

"Detecting patients at an early stage is very important and we learned the simple lessons by dealing with this virus that this is very contagious -- and once it starts, it spreads very quickly and in very wide areas," Park said. "Raising the testing capability is very important because that way, you can detect someone who's carrying the virus, then you can contain the virus."

South Korean authorities also arranged facilities for patients who were only suffering from mild symptoms. Park said only about 10% of coronavirus patients required hospitalization, while the rest had strong enough immune systems to fight the virus on their own.

About three quarters of all the cases have been identified in the city of Daegu and 63% of all cases in the country are directly related to Shinchonji religious group, the South Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

South Korean authorities believe it's possible that the country's outbreak began with Shincheonji. Park said the number of cases linked to Shincheonji could be as high as 90% of all coronavirus infections throughout the country, when counting those directly and indirectly linked to the religious group.

He also said that while most members agreed to be tested for the virus, there were a few that refused, and that may have slowed down the government's response.

"That's why the government officials sought their consent," he said. "Of course had we been able to test them sooner it could have been easier for us to deal with it so that is a disappointing part of it."

"Without this particular group we might have been able to contain and cope in this fight against the virus but we encountered a very particular and unique religious group so we are trying to block and contain this infection while protecting freedom of citizens, and we are hoping to be able to see a resolution in a short time," he said.
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  #2030  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
As of today, in North America, public health authorities are not suggesting that people take significant steps to impact how quickly they may spread the virus.

So who gets to decide what the "right" and "wrong" action are to take? And do they get to impose that choice on others full of moral judgement?
Huh? People are being advised to limit travel, etc. Parades and other events are being canceled. That sounds significant to me. Some of this is from state authorities, not the federal, but Trump has made clear he's interfering with the federal response and he's a dipshit about this stuff.
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