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  #251  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by yankeetripper View Post
As I said, the math is really in favor of Soy being F right now. Which implies SS very strongly a likely liberal.

Soy investigated SS as F, so it makes sense he would Nein. It also makes sense for the other 2 or 3 regular F to vote Nein if SS is L.

Since there is enough doubt it the 4 unknown liberals and Hitler assuming that’s not soy, it’s not surprising a few liberals voted Nein.
There are times when there are F v F conflicts, and it can work well. I don't think SS is very strongly a likely liberal as you put it.

But I still generally agree with most of your points.
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  #252  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by ImWickedSmaht View Post
They make me inclined to think SS is liberal. Which would make soy F and then you still and unknown.
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How does that make you think SS is L? yt and DW should have no info on SS if they are liberal.
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Originally Posted by yankeetripper View Post
We have a lot of info on SS via Soy who almost certainly F now.
This exchange it a little weird.

I could see maybe the votes giving an indication that yt and DW are L, but I don't see how they shed any additional light on SS.

As for me being "almost certainly F", I'm still trying to figure out what might be wrong with the 88% number, because it seems really high to me. Whether it is 88%, 60%, whatever - I accept that my probability of being F is higher in all but 3 people's minds than anyone else's probability. It's the hand I was dealt, I'll have to do what I can with it.

The FFF was a blow to me personally, but at least there are fewer F's in the deck now, and I did manage to find a Fascist with my investigation. If the best that can happen from this is that myself and SS are both removed from future governments, that may have to be enough for now.
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  #253  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by soyleche View Post
This exchange it a little weird.

I could see maybe the votes giving an indication that yt and DW are L, but I don't see how they shed any additional light on SS.

As for me being "almost certainly F", I'm still trying to figure out what might be wrong with the 88% number, because it seems really high to me. Whether it is 88%, 60%, whatever - I accept that my probability of being F is higher in all but 3 people's minds than anyone else's probability. It's the hand I was dealt, I'll have to do what I can with it.

The FFF was a blow to me personally, but at least there are fewer F's in the deck now, and I did manage to find a Fascist with my investigation. If the best that can happen from this is that myself and SS are both removed from future governments, that may have to be enough for now.
Just the fact that an SS govt was voted down by the group. At least one non-Hitler F voted Nein. It's still early, I'm not taking a stand as strongly as YT is at this point.

Also I agree the 88% seems wrong somehow too. Probability is wicked hard.
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  #254  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yankeetripper View Post
As I said, the math is really in favor of Soy being F right now. Which implies SS very strongly a likely liberal.

Soy investigated SS as F, so it makes sense he would Nein. It also makes sense for the other 2 or 3 regular F to vote Nein if SS is L.

Since there is enough doubt it the 4 unknown liberals and Hitler assuming that’s not soy, it’s not surprising a few liberals voted Nein.
There are two theories for voting if you are liberal - Short term gain by voting for the most likely liberal team, or Long Term thinking by voting to get govts which will give us more information.

In the last election, I did the latter because I know info on three people is not going to be enough for us to form any type of trust.

I get that you and DW did the former. The numbers are definitely in favor of SS being L. But at least recognize there is a long term strategy to forming govts.
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  #255  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:37 PM
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Votes are in!

Spoiler:

Gov't passes.

Code:
					01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09
Rnd	Elect	Pres	Chan	Pol	soy	SS	PQ	IWS	WW	AS	DW	yt	K
02	01	02	05	---	N	J	N	N	N	N	J	J	N
02	02	03	09	??	J	J	J	N	J	J	J	N	J
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  #256  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:38 PM
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Peas and Queues & Kenny, please do not post in the thread until your policy has been announced in the thread.
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  #257  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ImWickedSmaht View Post
Just the fact that an SS govt was voted down by the group. At least one non-Hitler F voted Nein. It's still early, I'm not taking a stand as strongly as YT is at this point.

Also I agree the 88% seems wrong somehow too. Probability is wicked hard.
DW laid out 88% a few pages ago. I agreed with his math, still do. As there was only a 12% chance there would be a Liberal in chair one who also drew FFF on first deal.
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  #258  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:41 PM
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At least 2 fascist support this government.
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  #259  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yankeetripper View Post
DW laid out 88% a few pages ago. I agreed with his math, still do. As there was only a 12% chance there would be a Liberal in chair one who also drew FFF on first deal.
Isn't there some sort of Bayesian magic we can do though, like given an F passed, it's more likely that FFF was drawn? And maybe given that there was no conflict between AS and Soy then maybe it's more likely FFF was drawn? Maybe I'm thinking about it wrong, but I don't have time to really think about it hard now.
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  #260  
Old 04-29-2020, 01:45 PM
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At least 2 fascist support this government.
Ugh, this government stinks
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