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  #271  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:03 PM
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Card claims?

IWS and YT only no votes on this govt. Soy and SS both vote Ja.
Who usually goes first? I thought Chancellor usually made a claim first, so I don't want to try to jump in and be accused of signalling anything.
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  #272  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by yankeetripper View Post
If you are Liberal the only case where Soy is also Liberal is the 4/8 chance he is liberal times .24 chance he was dealt FFF which is 12%. In all other cases Soy is Fascist.

So if Soy turns out to be Liberal I’ll humble pie or potatoes or bacon as a side dish with my crow.
I think IWS may be on to something though. There is a 0% chance that I was dealt an LLL, so the 24% should be higher somehow. Then we have to work in probabilities that AS is F if I was dealt LLF.

Still - though, regardless of magnitude I accept that I look more F than everyone else to everyone but the Fs.
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  #273  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Peas and Queues View Post
Who usually goes first? I thought Chancellor usually made a claim first, so I don't want to try to jump in and be accused of signalling anything.
Yeah, unless its an F policy, I think Chancellor goes first.

If it is an F, then we can safely assume the Chancellor claims FF.
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  #274  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by yankeetripper View Post
Possible out comes were
soy L As ? FFF
Soy F As ? FFF
Soy F As ? FFL
Soy F As F FLL
No other outcomes make sense
I think we need to eliminate any of the outcomes that don't make sense from the denominator. I did a quick calc and 48% of outcomes don't make sense. so really 12%/52% = 23% chance soy is telling the truth.

I wouldn't necessarily bet on my math in a life or death situation though...
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  #275  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by soyleche View Post
I think IWS may be on to something though. There is a 0% chance that I was dealt an LLL, so the 24% should be higher somehow. Then we have to work in probabilities that AS is F if I was dealt LLF.

Still - though, regardless of magnitude I accept that I look more F than everyone else to everyone but the Fs.
There is a 2.9% chance of LLL first deal. So if you want to take that out FFF then goes up all the way to 25% instead of 24%. So I guess it’s closer to 12.5% than 12% that you are liberal.
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  #276  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by soyleche View Post
I think IWS may be on to something though. There is a 0% chance that I was dealt an LLL, so the 24% should be higher somehow. Then we have to work in probabilities that AS is F if I was dealt LLF.

Still - though, regardless of magnitude I accept that I look more F than everyone else to everyone but the Fs.
I did the math the morning after we passed the policy. Here is my work, if it posts well:

Code:
F	L	Total	LLL	FLL	FFL	FFF		My perspective	Others
11	6	17	0.029411764705882	0.242647058823529	0.485294117647059	0.242647058823529		0.333333333333333	0.25
Since the LLL is only 3%, removing it doesn't change the probs all that much.
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  #277  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:10 PM
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oo im president
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  #278  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:13 PM
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Shoot, that doesn't look clean. But I can't edit or delete.

The last two number columns are my perspective (knowing I did get FF, eliminating the FLL option) and the other perspective including the FLL option. they are 1/3 and 1/4 respectively.
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  #279  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:13 PM
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I think we can eliminate the following from the denominator, not just LLL:

Soy AS Card
F L FLL
F L LLL
L F FFL
L F FLL
L F LLL
F F LLL
L L FFL
L L FLL
L L LLL
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  #280  
Old 04-29-2020, 02:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peas and Queues View Post
Who usually goes first? I thought Chancellor usually made a claim first, so I don't want to try to jump in and be accused of signalling anything.
Quote:
Originally Posted by A Student View Post
Yeah, unless its an F policy, I think Chancellor goes first.

If it is an F, then we can safely assume the Chancellor claims FF.
I was trying to remember that as well bc I was thinking it was President, but soy going first was the issue with the first policy so I will assume it should be me.

I was passed LL
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