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  #791  
Old 05-03-2020, 07:57 PM
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who I would shoot


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  #792  
Old 05-03-2020, 08:19 PM
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I don’t think I’ve ever gotten Soy up to 23%. I think at best I got him close to 17% up from the original 12%. . But either way that’s a lot more likely F than L and nothing in the rest of his play makes me think he was L that got bad FFF deal.
Sorry - I have had some personal things to deal with and haven't been able to give the game much attention. I've been reading but haven't been able to do much analysis.

One thing I have thought about is the 12% calc. You get up to the 23% (well, I get 22%) by factoring in additional information that we had after the claims. Namely: An F was passed, AS claimed FF and I claimed FFF.

So, we have P(L|claimed FFF) = P(L AND claimed FFF) / P(claimed FFF).

The only way you get L and claimed FFF is if I was assigned L and drew FFF - so that's where the 12% comes in.

In the denominator you also have P(F AND claimed FFF), which has 3 parts - assigned F and drew FFF, assigned F and drew FFL, assigned F and drew FLL AND AS assigned F.

So, you get .12/(.12 + .12 + .245 + .5) = .22
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  #793  
Old 05-03-2020, 08:19 PM
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lol not what I was going for

But if I do get a gov and somehow draw FFF I would definitely be looking at the 2 FFF claims proceeding me.
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  #794  
Old 05-03-2020, 08:21 PM
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Sorry - I have had some personal things to deal with and haven't been able to give the game much attention. I've been reading but haven't been able to do much analysis.

One thing I have thought about is the 12% calc. You get up to the 23% (well, I get 22%) by factoring in additional information that we had after the claims. Namely: An F was passed, AS claimed FF and I claimed FFF.

So, we have P(L|claimed FFF) = P(L AND claimed FFF) / P(claimed FFF).

The only way you get L and claimed FFF is if I was assigned L and drew FFF - so that's where the 12% comes in.

In the denominator you also have P(F AND claimed FFF), which has 3 parts - assigned F and drew FFF, assigned F and drew FFL, assigned F and drew FLL AND AS assigned F.

So, you get .12/(.12 + .12 + .245 + .05) = .22
IFMP
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  #795  
Old 05-03-2020, 09:39 PM
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Well soy whether you are dirty fascist or liberal I’ve wrongly assumed dirty, hope whatever personal things going on were run of the mill stuff or dare I hope even fun and not some Covid-19 problem.
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  #796  
Old 05-04-2020, 01:22 AM
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Well soy whether you are dirty fascist or liberal I’ve wrongly assumed dirty, hope whatever personal things going on were run of the mill stuff or dare I hope even fun and not some Covid-19 problem.


Giving the current policies passed, I don't think this game will last but a few more (business) days at best.
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  #797  
Old 05-04-2020, 09:16 AM
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Well soy whether you are dirty fascist or liberal I’ve wrongly assumed dirty, hope whatever personal things going on were run of the mill stuff or dare I hope even fun and not some Covid-19 problem.
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  #798  
Old 05-04-2020, 09:34 AM
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  #799  
Old 05-04-2020, 10:11 AM
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You guys better be making the SG something interesting to read after this is over.
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  #800  
Old 05-04-2020, 10:45 AM
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You guys better be making the SG something interesting to read after this is over.
Yeah... Nope.
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