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  #4781  
Old 04-02-2020, 01:37 PM
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Italy with 4782 new cases reported off of 29,673 tests. 14% hit rate, which is the same it was yesterday (4053 new cases off of 25,556 tests).
Another decent day for Italy - 4668 positives reported from 39,800 tests (12% hit rate). Their 7 day running average is 16% positive. It's been slowly decreasing since March 20th, when it bottomed out at 27%.

I threw a bunch of regional data into Tableau last night - the Lombardia region, which is the epicenter, now has a 28% hit rate compared to 48% at its peak almost two weeks ago. And a couple regions are staying roughly flat, but no region seems to be getting worse.

Lots of data for me to mess around with. Going to try to do something with ICU/Hospital trends to see if I can estimate how lagged it is compared to other daily +/- results.
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  #4782  
Old 04-02-2020, 01:39 PM
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And FL goes boom - total deaths tripled from 100 to 300 in a day. Probably distorted some by reporting issues, but still that's a massive increase. Hoping it's a data error and not really that much of an increase.
Where are you seeing this? FL Dept of Health shows 128 deaths here: https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/
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Old 04-02-2020, 01:45 PM
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Where are you seeing this? FL Dept of Health shows 128 deaths here: https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

But following their data sources I don't see where they're getting it from, so maybe it's a data error on their side.

And now their numbers have changed, so indeed looks like a data error.

Last edited by Cloister; 04-02-2020 at 01:52 PM..
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  #4784  
Old 04-02-2020, 02:00 PM
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I'm sorry, but no, this is like saying condoms are worse than pulling out because they might slip off. All that talk of touching your face making it worse was to make it sound plausible to laypeople so they wouldn't buy up all the masks. It was propaganda to slow the purchase of masks.
So, am I reading the earlier information differently than everyone else? Because I’m reading them actually acknowledging that masks had certain benefits, but not the lowering your own exposure risk versus the lowering the chance you spread risk.

The tweet on N95s didn’t explain that N95 masks require some training to use properly, so while a key detail was left out as to the why, the message was substantively correct in saying most people shouldn’t be buying N95s.

I’m not disagreeing that details were lacking so much as they weren’t making any kind of false statements that were legitimately detrimental.
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:22 PM
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Interesting data on likelihood of dying given an infection of Covid-19 from worldometers

#'s of note

- all ages with no pre-existing conditions only .9% die of coronavirus

- no one has died worldwide under the age of 10

- likelihood of dying if you contract Covid-19 between 40-50 is .4% if you are under 40 and over 10 it's .2%






https://www.worldometers.info/corona...45C1vHijM7XfFw
unless i missed it, they don't have a split by age if there is no underlying condition, just the overall 0.9% rate. i'm most curious about that for the elderly crowd, specifically my parents. unsure if my father is considered having an underying health condition, but he's in a nursing home right now for rehab and therefore i fear he will get it. they actually thought he DID have covid-19 on sunday morning because he had a cough and a slight fever, but they got rid of the fever with Tylenol almost immediately and now 4 days later it hasn't come back. so either he had the easiest case of COVID imaginable or he didn't have it afterall and is still susceptible to it.
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  #4786  
Old 04-02-2020, 02:23 PM
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Well, only 6.6 million more unemployed this week on top of the 3.3 million last week. 10 million unemployed in 2 weeks. Previous all-time high for one week was 671,000.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA
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  #4787  
Old 04-02-2020, 02:25 PM
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unless i missed it, they don't have a split by age if there is no underlying condition, just the overall 0.9% rate. i'm most curious about that for the elderly crowd, specifically my parents. unsure if my father is considered having an underying health condition, but he's in a nursing home right now for rehab and therefore i fear he will get it. they actually thought he DID have covid-19 on sunday morning because he had a cough and a slight fever, but they got rid of the fever with Tylenol almost immediately and now 4 days later it hasn't come back. so either he had the easiest case of COVID imaginable or he didn't have it afterall and is still susceptible to it.
Yeah, it was not separated out by age. The condition specific risk of dying and the age specific risk is split out, but not the comorbidities.
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  #4788  
Old 04-02-2020, 02:27 PM
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EHMI has some week over week comparisons in their model posted. Overall for the national figures, the mean death estimate is up and a bit more lagged (to be expected given their assumptions regarding social distancing measures), and the range has tightened (also to be expected). WA estimates are down (Yay!!) and accelerated a tad suggesting measures have been more successful than expected.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
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  #4789  
Old 04-02-2020, 02:29 PM
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Only post-mortem examination can tell. Not sure if parents would agree tho.
An autopsy did confirm it was covid 19

NM. While some reports say ‘from’ covid, others say more rest results are need to confirm if it was the cause.
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  #4790  
Old 04-02-2020, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by ditkaworshipper View Post
So, am I reading the earlier information differently than everyone else? Because Iím reading them actually acknowledging that masks had certain benefits, but not the lowering your own exposure risk versus the lowering the chance you spread risk.

The tweet on N95s didnít explain that N95 masks require some training to use properly, so while a key detail was left out as to the why, the message was substantively correct in saying most people shouldnít be buying N95s.

Iím not disagreeing that details were lacking so much as they werenít making any kind of false statements that were legitimately detrimental.
I would put money on it lowering your own exposure also. Not as much of a reduction maybe, but still a reduction.
Sure if someone coughs directly in your face and leaves a wet spot on the mask, it's not likely to do much. But that's not how direct most exposure is.
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