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  #31  
Old 05-11-2017, 07:42 AM
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Sredni Vashtar Sredni Vashtar is offline
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Originally Posted by nonlnear View Post
So the real breakout price point for home rooftop solar may be "same as non-solar".
Speaking of, the solar roof prices did come out. They cost about the same amount as a regular non-solar roof that is made out of gold.



At least it looks nice.
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  #32  
Old 05-11-2017, 09:14 AM
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Speaking of, the solar roof prices did come out. They cost about the same amount as a regular non-solar roof that is made out of gold.



At least it looks nice.
I clicked through their calculator from the link in the 'Solar Power' thread in NAT. (Click "Get started" on this page.) The big tell that it's a crappy value right now is that their ROI claculation is horribly wrong. They project power bills out for 30 years increasing at 2% annually (fair enoguh, I guess), and they stack those nominal dollars up against the up front purchase price of the roof and PowerWall.For me it's right at break-even wiht a huge tax credit and zero cost of capital. Problem is I have a non-zero cost of capital, especially over a 30 year horizon.

Anyone with net metering really doesn't need the PowerWall. It's basically a complete waste. If you would get a standby generator, or have unreliable power then sure, but the idea that everybody in suburbia should be interested in buying a big ol' battery pack when they are tied into local power distribution is abotu as directly comparable to selling snow to Eskimos as you can get. Or perhaps more relevant to insurance folks, it's like sayign everyone should have their own private robot fire crew in their garage. There are massive economies of scale to be reaped by aggregating individual power loads and smoothing them out in bulk. It is really inefficient use of [physical] capital to put a big battery in every home - even if small scale solar reaches a price point where it is an economic means of generation for everyone. The future Battery Maintenance Technicians Alliance disagrees, of course.

That said, I'm not opposed to home scale power storage. It has its place. I live in a place where standby generators are considered by some to be a need. Home generators are crazy inefficient, and the ones big enough to run a whole hoem including A/C aren't cheap. If a large generator is baked into the opportunity cost of home solar + battery, it puts a heavy thumb on the scale in favor of solar + battery.
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  #33  
Old 05-11-2017, 11:00 AM
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Let the innumerate people pay for it and get the costs down until it actually makes sense.
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  #34  
Old 05-15-2017, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by nonlnear View Post
I clicked through their calculator from the link in the 'Solar Power' thread in NAT. (Click "Get started" on this page.) The big tell that it's a crappy value right now is that their ROI claculation is horribly wrong. They project power bills out for 30 years increasing at 2% annually (fair enoguh, I guess), and they stack those nominal dollars up against the up front purchase price of the roof and PowerWall.For me it's right at break-even wiht a huge tax credit and zero cost of capital. Problem is I have a non-zero cost of capital, especially over a 30 year horizon.

Anyone with net metering really doesn't need the PowerWall. It's basically a complete waste. If you would get a standby generator, or have unreliable power then sure, but the idea that everybody in suburbia should be interested in buying a big ol' battery pack when they are tied into local power distribution is abotu as directly comparable to selling snow to Eskimos as you can get. Or perhaps more relevant to insurance folks, it's like sayign everyone should have their own private robot fire crew in their garage. There are massive economies of scale to be reaped by aggregating individual power loads and smoothing them out in bulk. It is really inefficient use of [physical] capital to put a big battery in every home - even if small scale solar reaches a price point where it is an economic means of generation for everyone. The future Battery Maintenance Technicians Alliance disagrees, of course.

That said, I'm not opposed to home scale power storage. It has its place. I live in a place where standby generators are considered by some to be a need. Home generators are crazy inefficient, and the ones big enough to run a whole hoem including A/C aren't cheap. If a large generator is baked into the opportunity cost of home solar + battery, it puts a heavy thumb on the scale in favor of solar + battery.
Yeah, it's funny that they assume you want the power-wall since that's where you're likely to get a big fat net loss. Maybe it's where all their profit is.

Generally I agree. The price looks comparable to solar panels. Which in strictly money terms, is anywhere from a terrible to OK investment, depending entirely on circumstances.

Best case:
You live in SoCal, with lots of sun and liberal subsidies, you need a new roof, you use a low-interest mortgage to get the capital, have no intention of trying to sell your house, and want long-term safe investments eg. bonds.

Worst case:
You are living in a northern conservative state and when you go to sell your house and the buyer thinks solar is stupid.
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  #35  
Old 06-13-2017, 02:50 PM
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Another 20% for the valuations to explain with voodoo words like "no longer just a car company." Starting to think about shorting myself here...
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Old 06-13-2017, 03:03 PM
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Tesla short is at over 30%. This will be epic, one way or another.
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Old 07-07-2017, 04:22 PM
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Another 20% for the valuations to explain with voodoo words like "no longer just a car company." Starting to think about shorting myself here...

Thread title no longer accurate. Tesla shares were around $370 on Monday, over the course of 2 days (4th doesn't count) bottomed out at $307 yesterday, closed today at $313.

Sredni, did you pull the trigger?
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Old 07-07-2017, 06:39 PM
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Should we really think of Tesla as a car company? I doubt it. Look at google. It once thought of a search company, but they use search as a way to generate cash to invest in other projects (although it appears that thiel thinks google doesn't know what to do with that cash). I think Tesla is going to sell cars in order to generate cash to finance other "innovative" projects.
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Old 07-07-2017, 07:50 PM
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They are a battery company that makes cars.
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  #40  
Old 07-08-2017, 08:50 AM
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Should we really think of Tesla as a car company? I doubt it. Look at google. It once thought of a search company, but they use search as a way to generate cash to invest in other projects (although it appears that thiel thinks google doesn't know what to do with that cash). I think Tesla is going to sell cars in order to generate cash to finance other "innovative" projects.
Have any of their side projects generated any meaningful revenue? I'm not a fan of Thiel but I don't know if I can argue with his point that they're a search/ad company.

youtube is the only thing I can think of that now generates revenue for them, but youtube is a search for videos to watch, that also hosts videos.

google maps which is also a search for addresses/directions?

google docs, not a search, also no revenue

Last edited by oblivious; 07-08-2017 at 08:53 AM..
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