Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Cyberchat > Sports
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #581  
Old 12-31-2019, 10:56 AM
1695814's Avatar
1695814 1695814 is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Studying for nothing. I quit.
Favorite beer: Root
Posts: 39,044
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MayanActuary View Post
Thanks for the game ####s!
Reply With Quote
  #582  
Old 01-01-2020, 05:08 PM
1695814's Avatar
1695814 1695814 is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Studying for nothing. I quit.
Favorite beer: Root
Posts: 39,044
Default

Here is the finals Awards Summary:

There were 107 awards handed out.
13 went unused.
9 had an indifferent, neutral outcome.
26 had an undesirable, negative result.
59 had a joyful, positive conclusion.

Quote:
Wk Award ........................................... Winner - How used
PS Change One Future Pick ................ Ultimate Anyone? - Week 4: Change Dolphins to Chargers
.. Change One Future Pick ................ Ultimate Anyone? - Week 8: Change Giants to Lions
.. Change One Future Pick ................ Ultimate Anyone? - Week 9: Change Cardinals to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick ................ Ultimate Anyone? - Week 12: Change Bengals to Steelers
.. Change One Future Pick ................. Vorian Atreides - Week 3: Change Colts to Falcons
.. Change One Future Pick ................. Vorian Atreides - Week 5: Change Vikings to Giants
.. Change One Future Pick ................. Vorian Atreides - Week 6: Change Steelers to Chargers
.. Change One Future Pick ................. Vorian Atreides -
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... twig93 - Week 3: Change Steelers to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... twig93 - Week 4: Change Eagles to Packers
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... twig93 - Week 8: Change Chiefs to Packers
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... twig93 - Week 9: Change Cardinals to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick ........................ Kid Rock - Week 3: Change Steelers to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick ........................ Kid Rock - Week 6: Change Browns to Seahawks
.. Change One Future Pick ........................ Kid Rock - Week 7: Change Redskins to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick ........................ Kid Rock - Week 9: Change Giants to Cowboys
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... KS6392 - Week 4: Change Lions to Chiefs
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... KS6392 - Week 5: Change Jets to Eagles
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... KS6392 - Week 6: Change Browns to Seahawks
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... KS6392 - Week 7: Change Redskins to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick .................. silentassassin - Week 2: Change Dolphins to Patriots
.. Change One Future Pick .................. silentassassin - Week 3: Change Saints to Seahawks
.. Change One Future Pick .................. silentassassin - Week 4: Change Dolphins to Chargers
.. Change One Future Pick .................. silentassassin - Week 5: Change Redskins to Patriots
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... Funemployed - Week 1: Change Raiders to Broncos
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... Funemployed - Week 3: Change Saints to Seahawks
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... Funemployed - Week 8: Change Falcons to Seahawks
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... Funemployed - Week 8: Change Chiefs to Packers
.. Change One Future Pick ......................... A695814 - Week 16: Change Browns to Ravens
.. Change One Future Pick ......................... A695814 - Week 16: Change Rams to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick ......................... A695814 -
.. Change One Future Pick ........................ Patience - Week 2: Change Redskins to Cowboys
.. Change One Future Pick ........................ Patience - Week 3: Change Saints to Seahawks
.. Change One Future Pick ........................ Patience - Week 7: Change Redskins to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... jesusislord - Week 3: Change Saints to Seahawks
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... jesusislord - Week 4: Change Saints to Cowboys
.. Change One Future Pick ....................... glassjaws - Week 7: Change Bears to Saints
.. Change One Future Pick ................. R Daneel Olivaw - Week 5: Change Steelers to Ravens
01 I Guarantee It ............................. Funemployed - Week 17: Guarantee Giants over Eagles
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... Funemployed - Week 9: Change Chargers to Packers
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... jesusislord - Week 8: Change Falcons to Seahawks
.. Change One Future Pick ................... The Arbitrary - Week 7: Change Redskins to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick .............. Ezekial Cumberland - Week 2: Change Colts to Titans
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... rekrap - Week 3: Change Steelers to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick .................. redearedslider -
.. Change One Future Pick ....................... Bingboing - Week 10: Change Steelers to Rams
02 I Guarantee It ............................. jesusislord - Week 17: Guarantee Titans over Texans
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... jesusislord -
03 Lovable Losers ........................ Ultimate Anyone? - Week 6: Guarantee Cardinals over Falcons
.. Change One Future Pick ................ Ultimate Anyone? - Week 13: Change Redskins to Panthers
.. Change One Future Pick ........................ Kid Rock - Week 15: Change Falcons to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... Funemployed - Week 9: Change Chiefs to Vikings
.. Change One Future Pick ......................... A695814 -
.. Change One Future Pick ................... The Arbitrary - Week 7: Change Broncos to Chiefs
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... rekrap - Week 9: Change Cardinals to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick ....................... Bingboing -
04 Lovable Losers ............................. Funemployed - Week 14: Guarantee Cardinals over Steelers
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... Funemployed - Week 12: Change Bengals to Steelers
.. Change One Future Pick ................... The Arbitrary - Week 12: Change Broncos to Bills
.. Change One Future Pick .............. Ezekial Cumberland - Week 10: Change Dolphins to Colts
.. Change One Future Pick .................. redearedslider -
.. Change One Future Pick .................... MayanActuary - Week 7: Change Dolphins to Bills
05 Jables' Home Field Advantage .................... KS6392 - Week 6: Jables' Home Field Advantage
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... KS6392 - Week 8: Change Falcons to Seahawks
06 Jables' Home Field Advantage ................ ldancer911 - Week 7: Jables' Home Field Advantage
.. Change One Future Pick ...................... ldancer911 -
07 Choose Your Own Adventure .................. Funemployed - Week 13: Jables' Home Field Advantage
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... Funemployed - Week 12: Change Rams to Ravens
.. Change One Future Pick .............. Carrie’s Carebears -
.. Change One Future Pick ........................ Jahiegel - Week 17: Change Jaguars to Colts
08 Choose Your Own Adventure ....................... twig93 - Week (Mult): The Arbitrary Award on the Steelers
.. The Arbitrary Award on the Steelers ............. twig93 - Week 9: Change Steelers to Colts
.. The Arbitrary Award on the Steelers ............. twig93 - Week 10: Change Steelers to Rams
.. The Arbitrary Award on the Steelers ............. twig93 - Week 14: Change Steelers to Cardinals
.. The Arbitrary Award on the Steelers ............. twig93 - Week 15: Change Steelers to Bills
.. The Arbitrary Award on the Steelers ............. twig93 - Week 16: Change Steelers to Jets
.. Change One Future Pick .................................................. .... twig93 - Week 16: Change Browns to Ravens
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... Funemployed - Week 13: Change Broncos to Chargers
.. Change One Future Pick .......................... rekrap - Week 15: Change Falcons to 49ers
09 Choose Your Own Adventure ............... silentassassin - Week 17: Jables' Home Field Advantage
.. Change One Future Pick .................. silentassassin - Week 10: Change Bengals to Ravens
.. Change One Future Pick ...................... bluecup129 - Week 10: Change Bengals to Ravens
10 Random Poster's Lucky 7 ........................ 3rookie - Week 11: Redskins +7
.. Change One Future Pick ......................... 3rookie - Week 16: Change Browns to Ravens
11 Random Poster's Lucky 7 ............... Ultimate Anyone? - Week 12: +3 to Redskins, +2 to Jets, +2 to Rams
.. Change One Future Pick ................ Ultimate Anyone? - Week 16: Change Browns to Ravens
.. Change One Future Pick ..................... Funemployed - Week 15: Change Panthers to Seahawks
.. Change One Future Pick ................... The Arbitrary - Week 15: Change Lions to Buccaneers
.. Change One Future Pick .................... MayanActuary - Week 15: Change Panthers to Seahawks
.. Change One Future Pick ........................ Jahiegel -
12 Numbers' Nudge ........................ Ultimate Anyone? - Week 13: +3 to Colts, +3 to Jaguars, +3 to Steelers, +2 to Texans
.. Change One Future Pick ................................ Ultimate Anyone? - Week 16: Change Rams to 49ers
.. Change One Future Pick ................................ Funemployed - Week 16: Change Browns to Ravens
.. Change One Future Pick ................................ A695814 -
.. Change One Future Pick ................................ Patience - Week 13: Change Falcons to Saints
.. Change One Future Pick ................................ The Arbitrary - Week 15: Change Jaguars to Raiders
13 Numbers' Nudge .......................... silentassassin - Week 14: +13 to Buccaneers
.. Change One Future Pick .................. silentassassin - Week 15: Change Panthers to Seahawks
.. Change One Future Pick .................... mjpetragnani -
14 Mob Insurance .................................. 3rookie - Week 15: Apply Week 15
.. Change One Future Pick ......................... 3rookie - Week 16: Change Bears to Chiefs
15 Mob Insurance ........................... silentassassin - Week 16: Apply Week 16
.. Change One Future Pick .................. silentassassin -
.. Change One Future Pick .................... MayanActuary - Week 16: Change Cardinals to Seahawks
16 AStudent's GroupThink .......................... 3rookie - Week 17: AStudent's GroupThink
.. Change One Future Pick ......................... 3rookie - Week 17: Change Panthers to Saints
17 Last Week Winner ........................ redearedslider - Week 17: Change Browns to a Tie

Last edited by 1695814; 01-01-2020 at 05:14 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #583  
Old 01-01-2020, 05:20 PM
1695814's Avatar
1695814 1695814 is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Studying for nothing. I quit.
Favorite beer: Root
Posts: 39,044
Default

Here's how the consensus did vs actual.

The right-most column is "Wins over Predicted".


49ers, Packers, & Ravens were the biggest overachievers.
Chargers & Rams (along with Panthers, Lions, Bears, & Bengals) stunk up the joint compared to their expectations.

Code:
CONSENSUS TO DATE   ACTUAL TO DATE

AFC East            AFC East
Patriots   13  3    Patriots   12  4     | -1
Bills       7  9    Bills      10  6     |  3
Jets        5 11    Jets        7  9     |  2
Dolphins    4 12    Dolphins    5 11     |  1
 
AFC North           AFC North
Steelers   11  5    Ravens     14  2     |  4
Ravens     10  6    Steelers    8  8     | -3
Browns      8  8    Browns      6 10     | -2
Bengals     6 10    Bengals     2 14     | -4
 
AFC South           AFC South
Colts       9  7    Texans     10  6     |  1
Texans      9  7    Titans      9  7     |  0
Titans      9  7    Colts       7  9     | -2
Jaguars     3 13    Jaguars     6 10     |  3
 
AFC West            AFC West
Chiefs     12  4    Chiefs     12  4     |  0
Chargers   10  6    Broncos     7  9     |  0
Broncos     7  9    Raiders     7  9     |  2
Raiders     5 11    Chargers    5 11     | -5
Code:
NFC East            NFC East
Cowboys    10  6    Eagles      9  7     | -1
Eagles     10  6    Cowboys     8  8     | -2
Giants      5 11    Giants      4 12     | -1
Redskins    4 12    Redskins    3 13     | -1
 
NFC North           NFC North
Bears      12  4    Packers    13  3     |  6
Vikings     9  7    Vikings    10  6     |  1
Lions       8  8    Bears       8  8     | -4
Packers     7  9    Lions       3 12  1  | -4.5
 
NFC South           NFC South
Saints     10  6    Saints     13  3     |  3
Panthers    9  7    Buccaneers  7  9     |  1
Falcons     7  9    Falcons     7  9     |  0
Buccaneers  6 10    Panthers    5 11     | -4
 
NFC West            NFC West
Rams       14  2    49ers      13  3     |  8
Seahawks   10  6    Seahawks   11  5     |  1
49ers       5 11    Rams        9  7     | -5
Cardinals   2 14    Cardinals   5 10  1  |  3.5

Last edited by 1695814; 01-04-2020 at 05:17 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #584  
Old 01-01-2020, 05:28 PM
1695814's Avatar
1695814 1695814 is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Studying for nothing. I quit.
Favorite beer: Root
Posts: 39,044
Default

STP End of Year Summary:
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1695814 View Post
SURE THING™ Picks:
Wk
3 Eagles over Lions
5 Panthers over Jaguars
8 Saints over Cardinals
12 Browns over Dolphins
17 Chiefs over Chargers

Last edited by 1695814; 01-01-2020 at 05:33 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #585  
Old 01-01-2020, 05:49 PM
1695814's Avatar
1695814 1695814 is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Studying for nothing. I quit.
Favorite beer: Root
Posts: 39,044
Default

A few running trackers of records:

Yearly winners
2009: The Arbitrary 177-78-1 .6973 (highest % & 8 games better than the consensus)
2010: trondogss 158-98 .6172 (2 games better than the consensus)
2011: sam10gle 167-89 .6523 (8 games better than the consensus)
2012: JUICE 163-92-1 .6387 (15 games better than the consensus)
2013: Ezekial Cumberland 165 - 90 - 1 .6465 (14 games better than the consensus)
2014: The Arbitrary 174-81-1 .6816 (6 games better than the consensus)
2015: The Arbitrary 156-99-1 .6113 (1.5 games better than the consensus)
2016: YetAnotherCareerChanger 162-94 .6328 (5 games better than the consensus)
2017: Funemployed 163-93 .6367 (9 games better than the consensus)
2018: Patience 165-88-3 .6582 (8.5 games better than the consensus)
2019: Funemployed 169-85-2 .6641 (20 games better than the consensus)

"Consensus" performance
2009: 166-83-7 .6621 (highest %)
2010: 156-100 .6094
2011: 159-97 .6211
2012: 148-107-1 .5801 (lowest # of wins & lowest %)
2013: 151-104-1 .5918
2014: 168-87-1 .6582 (highest # of wins)
2015: 155-101 .6055
2016: 156-100 .6094
2017: 154-102 .6016
2018: 157-97-2 .6172
2019: 149-106-1 .5840

Aggregating the best weekly records from weeks 1-17
2009: 206-50 .8047
2010: 194-62 .7578
2011: 203-53 .7930
2012: 192-63-1 .7520
2013: 199-56-1 .7793
2014: 214-41-1 .8379
2015: 196-60 .7656
2016: 200-56 .7813
2017: 200-56 .7813
2018: 193-61-2 .7578
2019: 206-48-2 .8086

Last edited by 1695814; 01-02-2020 at 10:59 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #586  
Old 01-01-2020, 05:53 PM
1695814's Avatar
1695814 1695814 is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Studying for nothing. I quit.
Favorite beer: Root
Posts: 39,044
Default

The winner of this year's Original Recipe Award for the player with the best original picks (i.e., ignoring all awards) is Funemployed (#7) with a 166-89-1 (65.04%) record. rekrap (#16) also achieved that record.

Last edited by 1695814; 01-02-2020 at 12:32 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #587  
Old 01-01-2020, 06:30 PM
1695814's Avatar
1695814 1695814 is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Studying for nothing. I quit.
Favorite beer: Root
Posts: 39,044
Default

Let's take a look at the FSP Hall of Fame (each * denotes a season won):
Code:
   player                  wins losses ties     %  #
  *Patience                1734   1072   10 61.75 11
***The Arbitrary           1728   1078   10 61.54 11
   Kid Rock                1707   1100    9 60.78 11
   rekrap                  1696   1112    8 60.37 11
  *Ezekial Cumberland      1555    997    8 60.90 10
 **Funemployed             1418    877    9 61.74  9
  *trondogss               1358    939    7 59.09  9
  *JUICE                    630    391    3 61.67  4
  *YetAnotherCareerChanger  610    411    3 59.72  4
  *sam10gle                 167     89    0 65.23  1
Reply With Quote
  #588  
Old 01-01-2020, 06:34 PM
1695814's Avatar
1695814 1695814 is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Studying for nothing. I quit.
Favorite beer: Root
Posts: 39,044
Default

Finally, here are the all-time standings for all players (each * denotes a season winner; # is the number of seasons played):
Code:
   player                  wins losses ties     %     #
  *Patience                1734   1072   10     61.75 11
***The Arbitrary           1728   1078   10     61.54 11
   zConsensus              1718   1083   15     61.27 11
   Kid Rock                1707   1100    9     60.78 11
   rekrap                  1696   1112    8     60.37 11
  *Ezekial Cumberland      1555    997    8     60.90 10
 **Funemployed             1418    877    9     61.74 9
   A Student               1393    903    8     60.63 9
  *trondogss               1358    939    7     59.09 9
   ldancer911              1298    997    9     56.53 9
   BingBoing               1219    823    6     59.67 8
   Ultimate Anyone?        1196    845    7     58.57 8
   A695814                 1196    844    8     58.59 8
   MountainHawk            1052    737    3     58.79 7
   zAll Home Teams         1013    772    7     56.72 7
   Standtall                890    641    5     58.11 6
   ImPrettyDumb             879    651    6     57.42 6
   DownInTexas              868    661    7     56.74 6
   Oliver Klozov            777    499    4     60.86 5
   Carrie’s Carebears       753    522    5     59.02 5
   3rookie                  749    526    5     58.71 5
   Agadefe                  704    573    3     55.12 5
   Vorian Atreides          658    617    5     51.60 5
  *JUICE                    630    391    3     61.67 4
  *YetAnotherCareerChanger  610    411    3     59.72 4
   yankeetripper            603    419    2     58.98 4
   MayanActuary             595    425    4     58.30 4
   glassjaws                587    436    1     57.37 4
   Italian Halibut          581    440    3     56.88 4
   DyalDragon               523    496    5     51.32 4
   Jahiegel                 491    274    3     64.13 3
   bluecup129               475    290    3     62.04 3
   SirVLCIV                 459    307    2     59.90 3
   R Daneel Olivaw          458    307    3     59.83 3
   redearedslider           456    308    4     59.64 3
   panther                  447    319    2     58.33 3
   Mog                      440    326    2     57.42 3
   twig93                   436    329    3     56.97 3
   Random Poster            318    193    1     62.21 2
   FastAsATurtle            312    200    0     60.94 2
   tometom                  311    200    1     60.84 2
   keyser soze              310    202    0     60.55 2
   jesusislord              310    199    3     60.84 2
   The Wizard of Awe        309    201    2     60.55 2
   KS6392                   309    200    3     60.64 2
   Efc1878                  306    205    1     59.86 2
   WillTreaty               305    205    2     59.77 2
   accobra_kid              305    206    1     59.67 2
   Sheeeeeeeed              301    210    1     58.89 2
   Sweetness0632            297    214    1     58.11 2
   Ego Leonard              295    216    1     57.71 2
   BallaActuary             295    217    0     57.62 2
   ditkaworshipper          294    218    0     57.42 2
   Ginormous76              293    219    0     57.23 2
   MAX.                     291    220    1     56.93 2
   statman4                 288    222    2     56.45 2
   Kool-Aid Man             287    225    0     56.05 2
   ichbinnreine             281    229    2     55.08 2
   Happy Skunk              261    249    2     51.17 2
   sam10gle                 167     89    0     65.23 1
   ultfrisbee               167     89    0     65.23 1
   zAbandoned1              166     89    1     65.04 1
   R2T                      165     91    0     64.45 1
   Abused Student           164     91    1     64.26 1
   Da Bears!                164     92    0     64.06 1
   punmanbowler             164     92    0     64.06 1
   Schnook                  163     93    0     63.67 1
   SportingNews             163     93    0     63.67 1
   zAbandoned2              161     94    1     63.09 1
   LifeIsAPoissonProcess    160     96    0     62.50 1
   Dr. John Zoidberg        158     97    1     61.91 1
   gomer_tree               158     98    0     61.72 1
   andyphillips             157     99    0     61.33 1
   CSPAN                    156    100    0     60.94 1
   mjpetragnani             156     99    1     61.13 1
   RedSoxFan                154    102    0     60.16 1
   AccruedAwakening         153    102    1     59.96 1
   Dr. Nuke                 153    103    0     59.77 1
   silentassassin           152    103    1     59.57 1
   Tmaas                    151    103    2     59.38 1
   Slippery Jim             150    105    1     58.79 1
   Warrior04                149    107    0     58.20 1
   InSpades                 149    107    0     58.20 1
   Roy Hobbs                148    107    1     58.01 1
   Bruton Gastor            148    108    0     57.81 1
   Hojo                     147    108    1     57.62 1
   Force of Interest        147    109    0     57.42 1
   malkusm                  145    109    2     57.03 1
   Numbers Nerd             145    110    1     56.84 1
   Blue Man                 145    111    0     56.64 1
   vividox                  143    113    0     55.86 1
   Gandalf                  143    113    0     55.86 1
   actubear                 141    114    1     55.27 1
   J.T.                     141    115    0     55.08 1
   ShundayBloodyShunday     140    114    2     55.08 1
   dinosaur                 139    117    0     54.30 1
   General Apathy           138    118    0     53.91 1
   Arden Bensenhaver        137    119    0     53.52 1
   B695814                  137    119    0     53.52 1
   Browncoat                132    123    1     51.76 1
Reply With Quote
  #589  
Old 01-01-2020, 07:01 PM
1695814's Avatar
1695814 1695814 is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Studying for nothing. I quit.
Favorite beer: Root
Posts: 39,044
Default

One last Salt in Your Wounds™ award:
Way to go, R Daneel Olivaw. Your revised picks (154-101-1 60.35%) were one game worse than your original picks (155-100-1 60.74%). Nice job!
Reply With Quote
  #590  
Old 01-01-2020, 10:12 PM
Funemployed Funemployed is offline
Member
CAS Non-Actuary
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Above it all
College: Ball State Alumni
Favorite beer: Root or Birch
Posts: 3,023
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1695814 View Post
The winner of this year's Original Recipe Award for the player with the best original picks (i.e., ignoring all awards) is Funemployed (#7) with a 166-92-1 (64.29%) record. rekrap (#16) also achieved that record.
Should that be 166-89-1?

Otherwise it's 3 games too many.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:34 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.41241 seconds with 10 queries