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  #1  
Old 03-18-2020, 09:39 PM
Alexis sanchez Alexis sanchez is offline
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Default COVID-19 impact on IBNR

How are you guys factoring/modeling in COVID-19 into your March IBNR for your Medicare or employer group lines.
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  #2  
Old 03-19-2020, 08:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexis sanchez View Post
How are you guys factoring/modeling in COVID-19 into your March IBNR for your Medicare or employer group lines.
Too many unknowns at this point. Seems reasonable to increase PMPMs from whatever they were assumed to be for Jan and February. The distribution of completion factors, service categories, etc are going to be much different than historical I'm assuming. Elective surgeries, services like dental and vision, etc are going to have next to no utilzation in some parts of the country as of a this week. There will also be a disruption to both the provider billing side and (your company's) claims review and adjudication. as far as the actual cost of Covid-19 for your members, thats going to be really hard to tell until more data emerges.
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Old 03-19-2020, 10:53 AM
Dr T Non-Fan Dr T Non-Fan is online now
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Could simply change the seasonality of the months, if one uses seasonality.
How much? As Alfred Hitchcock's board game would say, "It's a mystery to me."

If Pricing uses whatever comes from IBNR process, I'd suggest going back a few extra months to a time without the expected onslaught of COVID claims, then bump up the trend. How much? See Hitchcock above.
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Old 03-19-2020, 06:12 PM
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Going to depend a lot on type of service. All I know is seasonality is going to be a fun discussion for the next two-three years as this works it's way through experience.
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Old 03-21-2020, 02:09 PM
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Lots of uncertainty in the estimations at this point. Most of the work being delegated on my side has been the impacts from financially stressed employers. Add in SEP's for the Individual QHP market now going mainstream and enrollment has the potential to be chaotic as well for a few months.
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Old 03-23-2020, 11:25 PM
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It's possible that elective care offsets will be larger in magnitude (at least for March) than direct COVID-19 treatment.
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Old 03-24-2020, 12:56 PM
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Anyone worried about a slow payment pattern (caused by sick claims processor workers) that might last a few months?
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Old 03-24-2020, 01:19 PM
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That's a fair concern. Anecdotally I've noticed delays in ASO/TPA responses and deliverables
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Old 03-24-2020, 01:45 PM
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Our Medicare inpatient census counts (in the PNW / Mountain West) are still looking normal as of this morning, though I'm expecting the shoe to drop within the next week. Suspect that any COVID-related increases are currently being masked by decreases in elective procedures. I don't think we'll make much of a COVID-related adjustment to our March reserves, but April onwards will be messy.
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Old 04-02-2020, 09:34 AM
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I'm seeing ~40% drops in utilization for outpatient visits, inpatient visits (with exception of ICU and maternity), and ED visits, all based on real-time data over the past 3 weeks. Hospital utilization is plummeting...
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