Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Actuarial Discussion Forum > Careers - Employment
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

Browse Open Actuarial Jobs

Life  Health  Casualty  Pension  Entry Level  All Jobs  Salaries


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-01-2020, 05:57 PM
fallaway fallaway is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Earth
Posts: 673
Default When will the layoff start happening?

Back in 2008 my company didn't lay off anyone, but froze the salary, then started laying off people less than a year later. This time is much worse than 2008 considering the impact is coming from multiple aspects of the current situation, but I am still getting calls/emails from recruiters. Since many people got their bonus in March, this would normally be the time to look for potential new jobs, but this year it just seems really tricky..

with the market reaching one new high after another, I am sure many companies set pretty high target for 2020 last year, now there's little hope they can get anywhere near those goals through their product lines, so the only way to get to the target closer would be cutting expense.

Any thoughts/updates?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-01-2020, 06:04 PM
Colonel Smoothie's Avatar
Colonel Smoothie Colonel Smoothie is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
College: Jamba Juice University
Favorite beer: AO Amber Ale
Posts: 50,478
Default

Layoffs have already started happening. They happened immediately for retail and restaurant personnel.

As for actuaries, I don't know. The financial consequences of this won't be known for some time. On the P&C side, there's the question of whether governments will make insurers pay for things like business interruption regardless of contract wording. Therefore, we'd have to wait for the outcomes of lawsuits and things like that.
__________________
Recommended Readings for the EL Actuary || Recommended Readings for the EB Actuary

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wigmeister General View Post
Don't you even think about sending me your resume. I'll turn it into an origami boulder and return it to you.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-01-2020, 06:15 PM
fallaway fallaway is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Earth
Posts: 673
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colonel Smoothie View Post
Layoffs have already started happening. They happened immediately for retail and restaurant personnel.

As for actuaries, I don't know. The financial consequences of this won't be known for some time. On the P&C side, there's the question of whether governments will make insurers pay for things like business interruption regardless of contract wording. Therefore, we'd have to wait for the outcomes of lawsuits and things like that.
Yeah I know it already happened for many sectors, but I was only referring to the actuarial market... I heard there's something coming out of the government that insurance companies can't charge any policyholders for lapse due to covid-19, and given the impending spike of unemployment, lapse will most likely be high...

I think the consequence should start showing some indication in Q1 results, and Q2 will be more clear.. and by then something will probably happen..
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04-01-2020, 06:29 PM
Abelian Grape's Avatar
Abelian Grape Abelian Grape is offline
Meme-ber                         Meme-ber
CAS
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Favorite beer: Allagash Curieux
Posts: 43,256
Default

I don't think it's obvious what the ramifications are for actuaries and employment. On the contrary of what you mentioned with regard to the underwriting results, a lot of writers could be seeing improved results. Some could say that this will trigger a hardening in the casualty market for example.
__________________

live laugh love
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-01-2020, 06:36 PM
Colonel Smoothie's Avatar
Colonel Smoothie Colonel Smoothie is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
College: Jamba Juice University
Favorite beer: AO Amber Ale
Posts: 50,478
Default

hard market

any day now

any day
__________________
Recommended Readings for the EL Actuary || Recommended Readings for the EB Actuary

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wigmeister General View Post
Don't you even think about sending me your resume. I'll turn it into an origami boulder and return it to you.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:59 PM
fallaway fallaway is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Earth
Posts: 673
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colonel Smoothie View Post
hard market

any day now

any day
What I don't understand is why some companies are still hiring - don't they have any expectation that the budget is going to be tight? if they take new people in, soon they will have to find a way to cut the cost and the easiest way is to let people go...
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 04-01-2020, 10:58 PM
Arroway's Avatar
Arroway Arroway is offline
Member
CAS SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In a house
Studying for Done, bois!
College: UConn
Favorite beer: Barq's or Mug, or any local Root Beer with caffeine
Posts: 1,614
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colonel Smoothie View Post
hard market

any day now

any day
Why not today? I've always said the market would harden on some random Wednesday, and this is as good a Wednesday as any other.
__________________
Arroway, Injustice 2 Raid Leader

All opinions are either my own, or made up for dramatic and/or comedic effect.

Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 04-01-2020, 11:31 PM
Arthur Itas's Avatar
Arthur Itas Arthur Itas is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Atlanta
Studying for Prostate exam
College: Hard Knocks
Posts: 22,599
Default

Usually the layoffs come before the market hardens IMO
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 04-02-2020, 07:28 AM
Maphisto's Sidekick's Avatar
Maphisto's Sidekick Maphisto's Sidekick is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: South Park Genetics Lab
College: Ardnox
Favorite beer: The kind with alcohol
Posts: 3,386
Default

Regarding the hard market, I would have thought the question would be: what will the 'rona-crash do to the hard market?

My guess has been that any layoffs would hit late this year, after we get through the current mess, start getting data on how things have changed, and can start making informed projections on prospective performance metrics.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 04-02-2020, 10:45 AM
Hydraskull's Avatar
Hydraskull Hydraskull is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Svalbard
Studying for life
Favorite beer: Six Point Resin
Posts: 6,458
Default

The answer is going to vary based on Life/Health/Pension/P&C, etc. Also by company, as different companies have been preparing for such an event in different ways.

I work for a US life company, and I don't think we'll see any layoffs to actuarial staff, period, as a result of this crisis.

Our application count is up, and we've been de-risking our balance sheet in anticipation of an economic downturn for years. We're not exposed to equity market volatility because we don't invest in equities. Defaults and credit migrations WILL materialize, but the industry is well-capitalized and will recover. RBC ratios will take a hit, but an event like this is exactly what RBC is for.

There are a lot of projects in the works that are not optional for life insurers: PBR, LDTI, VM-22, business transformation, model modernization. Insurers know they need to be staffed up to meet these needs, and if they fall behind the curve, they will be at a severe disadvantage relative to peers in a few years.

The economy will recover. If a company lays off their actuarial staff now, they will have to restaff within a few years. Hiring actuarial staff, training them, and resuming progress on all of the aforementioned projects would be a multi-year and costly effort. The time spent interviewing and selecting candidates, the salary bump they demand for switching companies, the relocation costs, the inevitable hires that end up being shitty employees and you regret hiring them... I just don't see a lot of appeal in going that route.

Better to retain the staff you have now, continue to make progress on those vital projects, deal with a couple years of shitty earnings, and come out of this firing on all cylinders and in a position to take maximum advantage of the recovery. Sounds like a much better option.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abraham Weishaus View Post
Only Hydraskull knows what he's talking about.
Retracted below.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:35 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.16660 seconds with 9 queries