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  #7031  
Old 05-04-2020, 07:25 PM
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Cuomo just showed a chart that I haven't seen before.

The paraphrased column titles are:

14 Day Decline in Hospitalizations, 14 Day Decline in Hospital Deaths, Under 2 new hospitalizations per 100,000 residents, At least 30% of total beds available, At least 30% of ICU beds available, ability to administer 30 tests per 1,000 residents each month, 30 contact tracers per 100,000 residents.


In NYC, at least for hospitalizations, they really need to scale the calculation for account for the number of people who have left (if they aren't already). Otherwise, their denominator is too high and they're too ambitious.
Picture available at the 25:18 mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwEldF5Me9Q

Someone correct me if I'm wrong - I believe these are CDC requirements that NY is following, not NY's own. NY may decide to be more or less stringent as pressure to reopen continues to build.
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  #7032  
Old 05-04-2020, 07:29 PM
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Thanks! I guess i was curious about the second to last column where everyone is N.

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30 contact tracers per 100,000 residents. Should be easy to scale that one up, to be honest. Would be a good way to employ some of these people who lost their jobs.

Apparently Bloomberg is helping set this up.
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Yeah I had suspicions that it was put in place to prevent rural areas from reopening. This about confirms it.
We may have misunderstood each other. The second to last column is contact tracing like I mentioned. The one where everyone is N is around testing capacity.

The contact tracing requirement should be easy to meet. You don't need to be on-site and a bunch of people are currently unemployed.
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  #7033  
Old 05-04-2020, 07:40 PM
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https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/art...article_inline

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COVID-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for increasing deaths globally. Most estimates have focused on numbers of deaths, with little direct quantification of years of life lost (YLL) through COVID-19. As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some have speculated that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs.
Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using standard WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs to model likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. From these, we used routine UK healthcare data to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/different combinations of LTCs. We then calculated YLL based on age, sex and type of LTCs and multimorbidity count.
Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).
Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.
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  #7034  
Old 05-04-2020, 07:46 PM
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https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/05...ng-to-smolder/

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New COVID-19 Report Shows Outbreak Continuing to Smolder

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The latest government COVID-19 tracking report shows that outbreak activity appears to be falling in most of the country, but that activity may be starting to creep back up in some states.

The number of patients seeking care for the disease from primary care offices, urgent care center, and hospital emergency rooms has fallen to a low level in most of the country.

But the number of patients seeking outpatient care for COVID-19 moved up some in Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Wyoming.

One sign of how rapidly COVID-19 was spreading a few weeks ago is that, in the week ending April 25, about 18% of all U.S. deaths were caused by COVID-19, or by something that looked an awful lot like COVID-19. That’s down from 25% for the weeks ending April 11 and April 18. But, in a normal week, fewer than 6% of deaths are caused by pneumonia or a flu-like illness.

Resources
The CDC’s weekly COVID-19 report is available here.
The CDC’s provisional COVID-19 mortality data table is available here.
An article about the previously weekly COVID-19 report is available here.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) began publishing the weekly COVID-19 tracking reports April 3.

Confirming COVID-19 cases with lab tests is still difficult and expensive, and many mild COVID-19 cases look like colds, flu or stomach bugs.

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To make up for the problems with COVID-19 testing, the weekly COVID-19 tracking reports give outpatient visit numbers, hospitalization numbers and death numbers for pneumonia, influenza and “influenza-like illnesses” as well as for laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19.

Public health authorities define an “influenza-like illness” as a patient have a fever over 100 degrees, along with either a cough or a sore throat.

The CDC depends on states to collect and report the data, and it notes that the data for the latest few weeks may be especially incomplete.

The new report shows that the total number of U.S. deaths was a little below average from Feb. 1 through March 21, but that the total number of deaths might have started to rise significantly above the expected level during the week ending April 4.

CDC calculates the “expected” death level figures by looking at the weekly death figures for the previous three-year period The expected death total for a given week is the average number of deaths the CDC has recorded for the comparable week in the year over the previous three-year period.

The latest figures show that the total number of U.S. deaths from all causes increased to about 20% over the expected level in the week ending April 11, and about 15% over the expected level during the week ending April 18.

State-level figures for April 25 appear to be incomplete. State-level figures for the week ending April 18, which look somewhat more complete, and including New York City, show that the number of deaths in New York City was more than twice as high as the usual level.

The total number of deaths from all causes was also high in New York state as a whole, in New Jersey, and in Massachusetts.

For the country as a whole, for the entire period from Jan. 25 through April 18, the CDC has reports of a total of 692,949 deaths, compared with an expected total of about 686,000. For that period, for the whole country, the number of deaths the CDC has recorded is about 1% higher than the expected level.

.

Deaths by Week
Ending Date COVID-19 Deaths Pneumonia Deaths FLU Deaths Pneumonia, FLU and COVID Deaths Total Deaths Percent of Expected Deaths
Feb. 1 - 3,688 469 4,157 57,266 97
Feb. 8 1 3,672 494 4,167 57,615 97
Feb. 15 - 3,693 517 4,210 56,878 97
Feb. 22 - 3,557 536 4,093 56,806 98
Feb. 29 5 3,626 619 4,247 56,843 99
March 7 25 3,719 583 4,312 56,212 97
March 14 49 3,676 578 4,277 53,968 95
March 21 493 4,150 496 4,907 53,979 95
March 28 2,712 5,624 410 7,463 57,430 103
April 4 8,082 8,724 432 13,148 64,313 115
April 11 12,262 9,841 430 16,744 66,577 120
April 18 10,408 7,606 215 13,663 55,062 101
April 25 3,271 2,806 67 4,777 26,489 49
.

Deaths by State* (Week ending April 18)
State
COVID Deaths
Pneumonia Deaths
Total Deaths
Percent of Expected Deaths
Alabama 39 60 740 96%
Arizona 41 74 1,013 106%
California 362 573 5,063 102%
Colorado 147 132 932 109%
Delaware 18 10 111 90%
District of Columbia 17 23 96 98%
Florida 157 309 3,651 102%
Georgia 71 86 1,049 96%
Illinois 408 385 2,482 108%
Indiana 147 147 1,069 101%
Iowa 26 34 523 98%
Kansas 27 30 470 97%
Kentucky 35 51 579 91%
Louisiana 171 114 718 103%
Maryland 250 181 1,185 106%
Massachusetts 855 408 2,139 114%
Michigan 490 373 2,285 110%
Minnesota 61 82 831 102%
Mississippi 48 74 627 102%
Missouri 50 66 923 94%
Nevada 23 29 405 100%
New Hampshire 15 16 238 101%
New Jersey 1,571 970 3,619 135%
New Mexico 11 17 226 91%
New York 1,510 1,003 3,830 124%
New York City 2,772 1,082 4,595 224%
North Carolina 0 0 0 47%
Ohio 23 74 1,306 89%
Oklahoma 21 27 437 88%
Oregon 19 19 406 94%
Pennsylvania 556 359 2,917 82%
Rhode Island 17 10 76 88%
South Carolina 35 64 904 106%
Tennessee 21 85 1,255 100%
Texas 113 268 2,995 99%
Virginia 141 105 1,301 103%
Washington 41 63 765 100%
Wisconsin 48 47 909 104%
Puerto Rico 13 25 257 69%
UNITED STATES 10,408 7,606 55,062 101%
* This table leaves out states that had missing COVID-19 or pneumonia death data.

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  #7035  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ShivamS View Post
Picture available at the 25:18 mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwEldF5Me9Q

Someone correct me if I'm wrong - I believe these are CDC requirements that NY is following, not NY's own. NY may decide to be more or less stringent as pressure to reopen continues to build.
Thanks!
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  #7036  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShivamS View Post
Picture available at the 25:18 mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwEldF5Me9Q

Someone correct me if I'm wrong - I believe these are CDC requirements that NY is following, not NY's own. NY may decide to be more or less stringent as pressure to reopen continues to build.
yeah, pretty sure it's CDC requirements.
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  #7037  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:26 PM
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We may have misunderstood each other. The second to last column is contact tracing like I mentioned. The one where everyone is N is around testing capacity.

The contact tracing requirement should be easy to meet. You don't need to be on-site and a bunch of people are currently unemployed.
Yeah so it looks like cny, finger lakes, southern tier, Mohawk valley and north country are all 5/7. Missing the contact tracers and testing capacity. I donít actually see either of those being met in some of these places. A lot of the smaller counties are already doing almost strictly contact tracing. I donít know if contact tracing is going to be a desirable job and that people will want to do it. I also donít think testing in some of these areas will be a priority of where to send tests.
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  #7038  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:31 PM
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yeah, pretty sure it's CDC requirements.
I canít find these guidelines. I find reopening office guidelines and the 14 day trajectory guidelines. Iím pretty sure anything beyond that is from the state.
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  #7039  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:32 PM
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I canít find these guidelines. I find reopening office guidelines and the 14 day trajectory guidelines. Iím pretty sure anything beyond that is from the state.
I think that Cuomo said it was some sort of federal guidelines that he was basing that on, but not positive.
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  #7040  
Old 05-04-2020, 08:37 PM
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I think that Cuomo said it was some sort of federal guidelines that he was basing that on, but not positive.
When I first saw them on the state site (30 per 100k, etc) it was titled expanding on cdc guidelines. I will need to go back and find it.
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