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  #2081  
Old 03-10-2020, 11:39 AM
Mud Mud is offline
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Market open: S&P +72, Dow +602
Market high, a few minutes after the open: S&P +102, Dow +945
Market current: negative on both (as I finish this, S&P -8, Dow -122

Total staying power of today's rally: about 2 hours. We're going to take another leg down soon, and it's going to be a lot like yesterday.
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  #2082  
Old 03-10-2020, 11:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mud View Post
Market open: S&P +72, Dow +602
Market high, a few minutes after the open: S&P +102, Dow +945
Market current: negative on both (as I finish this, S&P -8, Dow -122

Total staying power of today's rally: about 2 hours. We're going to take another leg down soon, and it's going to be a lot like yesterday.
It seems like shorting volatility has to pay off some time soon. How long can it stay near record levels?
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  #2083  
Old 03-10-2020, 12:19 PM
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I think this is a really dangerous place to decide "the bottom is in, now is when to buy." If someone wants to do that, it's a ballsy call - and yeah buy when everyone is fearful and all that, but IMO yesterday was not that get me the **** out of here moment you're looking for in a true market bottom.

And if cancellations in March roll into April, May, June, ... well, I don't think the market is pricing any of that in right now.
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  #2084  
Old 03-10-2020, 12:24 PM
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I keep adding cash to the portfolio to buy something, and I'm not. So that percentage is getting really high. The holdings tanking makes it higher.
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  #2085  
Old 03-10-2020, 12:28 PM
The_Polymath The_Polymath is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mud View Post
I think this is a really dangerous place to decide "the bottom is in, now is when to buy." If someone wants to do that, it's a ballsy call - and yeah buy when everyone is fearful and all that, but IMO yesterday was not that get me the **** out of here moment you're looking for in a true market bottom.

And if cancellations in March roll into April, May, June, ... well, I don't think the market is pricing any of that in right now.
The pain hasn't even started yet.

Wait till the US reaches 10,000+ cases. The stock markets have a ways to go till they settle.
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  #2086  
Old 03-10-2020, 12:59 PM
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The pain hasn't even started yet.

Wait till the US reaches 10,000+ cases. The stock markets have a ways to go till they settle.
Do you mean actual cases, or officially tested/confirmed cases? Because the US probably has tens of thousands of cases today.
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  #2087  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:00 PM
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Seems like US quarantines will start in a few weeks and really tank the market. So, I should be getting short.
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  #2088  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:01 PM
The_Polymath The_Polymath is offline
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Do you mean actual cases, or officially tested/confirmed cases? Because the US probably has tens of thousands of cases today.
Confirmed.

Thats when panic will start hitting the average person, and they will take this more seriously. That means less spending (as they stay home and avoid socialising) which will then impact the economy. Markets will drop like a rock.
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  #2089  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:10 PM
CowboyGuy CowboyGuy is offline
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Do we know how far back in the past do they look at the volatility to price it in the options? I wanna short some stocks too but don't wanna pay insanely high premiums.

I wanna do options because I currently don't have a lot of free cash to play with and want to take advantage of leverage.
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  #2090  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mud View Post
Market open: S&P +72, Dow +602
Market high, a few minutes after the open: S&P +102, Dow +945
Market current: negative on both (as I finish this, S&P -8, Dow -122

Total staying power of today's rally: about 2 hours. We're going to take another leg down soon, and it's going to be a lot like yesterday.
less than 2 hrs later and dow is +440, crazy volatility
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