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  #2011  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:16 PM
Howard100 Howard100 is offline
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Originally Posted by J0EBL0W View Post
It seems like it would be prudent to take what the federal government says with a grain of salt and give more weight to what other health authorities and experts are saying.
Yeah, I guess my point is that some people in here consider themselves authority (not picking on poly, there are others) and are handing out advice as such. You do you, but I'm going to take gov't authority AND actuarial outpost posters advice with a grain of salt. Combine them all into a pinch of salt and figure out what I'm doing based on my geography and social life.
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  #2012  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:17 PM
nonlnear nonlnear is offline
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Right. What you did is the correct response. We shouldn't listen to authorities. Except for you, because you're an authority because you do pandemics in models at work. So ignore all authorities except for you.

I'm not even saying I'm ignoring your advice. Not sure anyone is. I'm sure everyone is taking your comments into consideration. But no offense, you're just one "authority" saying one thing, and there are plenty of other non-govt authorities giving advice that pertains to my particular area that I'm going to use for my decision making.
You are waaaaaaaaaaaay too kind.
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  #2013  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:17 PM
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It seems like it would be prudent to take what the federal government says with a grain of salt and give more weight to what other health authorities and experts are saying.
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  #2014  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:17 PM
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There is a spectrum between self-quarantining and normal lives. Maybe in my normal life I was going to go on a cruise in a month that I'm not going to go on. Maybe I was going to go to a concert with 50k people that I may skip. I might also just be washing my hands more or staying home from work if I feel like I may be getting sick instead of waiting until I'm actually sick.

It's possible to change your behavior slightly for the greater good that is different than your normal behavior without going full quarantine. It seems pointless and stubborn to not make the little changes at this point.


We're not holing up at home, but we're going to go out less, and be more careful of keeping distance from others when out in public.

I'm particularly wary of eating at restaurants, where employees may decide to work, even if sick, because they need the money.
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  #2015  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:19 PM
Howard100 Howard100 is offline
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You are waaaaaaaaaaaay too kind.
I try. There's a lot of good info and ideas in this thread but it's starting to get muddy.

ETA: And say what you want about poly, but I do want to hear what he has to say. Could do without the individualized attacks on others, though, just like I could do without the individual attacks on poly.

Last edited by Howard100; 03-10-2020 at 01:23 PM..
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  #2016  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:19 PM
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I'm particularly wary of eating at restaurants, where employees may decide to work, even if sick, because they need the money.
Hmmm, crap, it's lobster week!
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  #2017  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:21 PM
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Orthodox Jewish folks once again.

It really never ends with these folks. First not vaccinating and now ignoring the advice.

https://www.jta.org/2020/03/03/healt...wish-community
Wait, what?

Now this disease is the fault of the Jews?

Are they disease vectors now?
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  #2018  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:21 PM
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I agree with this. I see a lot of arguments in here that sounds like "don't trust what authorities are telling you. Make up your own mind. What I'm doing is this and that. So you should probably do what I'm doing. If you're doing less, you're not doing enough. If you're doing more, it's probably panic. But make up your own mind with your own brain and you should come to the same conclusion as mine."
Maybe this is just due to too much time spent in AO political, but I don't think it's a "bad" thing for folks to have ideas and disagree about things? It's weird coming here and getting accused of being a pharisee for what feels like normal everyday conversation.

Admittedly, I can't speak for the "polymath".
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  #2019  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:23 PM
The_Polymath The_Polymath is offline
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Right. What you did is the correct response. We shouldn't listen to authorities. Except for you, because you're an authority because you do pandemics in models at work. So ignore all authorities except for you.

I'm not even saying I'm ignoring your advice. Not sure anyone is. I'm sure everyone is taking your comments into consideration. But no offense, you're just one "authority" saying one thing, and there are plenty of other non-govt authorities giving advice that pertains to my particular area that I'm going to use for my decision making.
Can you not do research?

The underlying math behind pandemic models is not super complex.
(It's the assumptions that have very wide CIs)

Then take a look at the transmission rates from various countries.

And adjust your priors given we have R0 values in the 2-3 range.

Pictures have been posted in this thread explaining this.
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  #2020  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:25 PM
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Wait, what?

Now this disease is the fault of the Jews?

Are they disease vectors now?
of course it's the fault of the jews, and haven't they always been disease vectors? /red
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