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  #341  
Old Yesterday, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by fdsafdsa View Post
Interesting, had assumed immunity would persist like for most viruses we deal with.

I thought the issue with "the" cold was more there were like ~100 viruses that all present as "the" cold so it's not really practical to immunize against them all.
You're supposed to get the flu virus every year. I'm not entirely sure why that's the case whereas other vaccines like MMP is good for several years and chicken pox is generally only once. I think it's partly the rate of mutation, partly the type of virus, and to some extent the life history of the virus. In the case of the flu, the one we get is the result of a virus strain in pigs mixing with a strain in birds and then jumps to humans annually. However, I'm very fuzzy on the details.
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  #342  
Old Yesterday, 03:03 PM
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New apparently uncontained outbreaks in Iran, South Korea, and possibly Italy. Expect a new wave of exponential growth, though it may or may not be reflected in any "official" numbers as I've repeatedly been warning you guys here. Interestingly, Iran was able to keep their outbreak very quiet until yesterday when the first few deaths were announced. Last night a Canadian woman from B.C. was confirmed positive for COVID-19 with only travel history to Iran... in late January. I think Iran is having elections today.

Similar situation in Italy where a mid-30s man was infected some time in late January and his symptoms have been progressing for over 3 weeks now, and he's been going out to eat with friends, infecting numerous others. His girlfriend and several others have also been confirmed positive.

https://time.com/5788511/south-korea...irus-outbreak/

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/202...-outbreak.html

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020...-lombardy.html
I've been reading about Iran for a few days now at least...

Eta...
Looks like 2-3 days: https://www.google.com/amp/s/globaln...rus-cases/amp/

The NY Post had a story on the 12th, but I'm not sure if I saw it. https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost....ronavirus/amp/

Last edited by Fish Actuary; Yesterday at 03:22 PM..
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  #343  
Old Yesterday, 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Fish Actuary View Post
You're supposed to get the flu virus every year. I'm not entirely sure why that's the case whereas other vaccines like MMP is good for several years and chicken pox is generally only once. I think it's partly the rate of mutation, partly the type of virus, and to some extent the life history of the virus. In the case of the flu, the one we get is the result of a virus strain in pigs mixing with a strain in birds and then jumps to humans annually. However, I'm very fuzzy on the details.
This is extremely fuzzy on the details. As in, no, the seasonal flu doesn't come to humans from animals. And yes, there's a rate of mutation issue, but mostly it's that there are so many strains (like the common cold).

In general, the vaccine is developed from what strains are being see in the opposite hemisphere at the very beginning of their seasonal flu outbreaks... and they do this due to the amount of time it takes to incubate/manufacture the flu vaccine.

Usually there are four strains in the flu shot given in North America. The vaccine is less effective for certain types of strains compared to other ones.


more here:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/keyfacts.htm
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  #344  
Old Yesterday, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Fish Actuary View Post
I've been reading about Iran for a few days now at least...

Eta...
Looks like 2-3 days: https://www.google.com/amp/s/globaln...rus-cases/amp/

The NY Post had a story on the 12th, but I'm not sure if I saw it. https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost....ronavirus/amp/
The story from the 12th contains this tidbit, which only reinforces the warnings I've been repeatedly issuing in this thread:

Quote:
But a spokesman for Iran’s Health Ministry, Kianush Jahanpour, denied the report.

“There have been no cases of coronavirus in Iran,” he said.
Do not necessarily expect timely truth from authorities. With multiple deaths now officially reported in Iran, we know that some of these victims were likely very ill for a week or more. Now, Iran has a big problem because, for whatever reason, they tried to keep this quiet for as long as possible. Their people then didn't know they ought to take reasonable precautions. I wonder how many will die as a result...
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Old Yesterday, 06:25 PM
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This is extremely fuzzy on the details. As in, no, the seasonal flu doesn't come to humans from animals. And yes, there's a rate of mutation issue, but mostly it's that there are so many strains (like the common cold).

In general, the vaccine is developed from what strains are being see in the opposite hemisphere at the very beginning of their seasonal flu outbreaks... and they do this due to the amount of time it takes to incubate/manufacture the flu vaccine.

Usually there are four strains in the flu shot given in North America. The vaccine is less effective for certain types of strains compared to other ones.


more here:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/keyfacts.htm
I know I didn't get it 100% right, but there's also some of this going on as well...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2797349/
Quote:
...
The new pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus
Recently, a new influenza variant was identified as the source of a cluster of human pneumonia cases in the state of California (USA) and in La Gloria, Mexico (47,48). This variant was soon designated as “swine flu” virus although it was never detected in porcine populations until the occurrence in a swine herd in Alberta, Canada in May 2009 (49), in Argentina in June 2009 (50), and in Australia at the end of July 2009 (51). Later, names like Mexican flu virus, swine-origin H1N1, or pandemic (H1N1) 2009 arose, but the nomenclature remains unclear. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 abbreviated to pH1N1 will be used herein.

When pH1N1 genes are compared with genes already known in influenza viruses, pH1N1 does not cluster with any of the known and currently circulating human H1N1 seasonal flu viruses. Instead, all gene segments cluster with currently circulating swine viruses.
...
The other part is that type A influenza virus can exist in bird, swine and human hosts and you can get exchange of genetic(?) material between host types if an animal is simultaneously infected with two different viruses.
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