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  #2851  
Old 06-01-2020, 10:04 AM
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Decided to do some short term trading as the markets are just being silly.

Shorted the FTSE 100. The UK is going to get hammered in the next few months. No chance of it going up even with massive Govt intervention.

Figure I can make a quick 20% profit in the next few months.
un-hedged Shorting England? Borg is putting his money where his mouth is.

I dont follow the london market, but my take on the US is that SPY likes sitting at 300 for a while. Overall, I dont hate shorts right now as I dont see another big jump, but still the risk of slow increases over the next few months could put you down 3-5% total. Not a terrible risk/reward play.
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  #2852  
Old 06-01-2020, 10:22 AM
The_Actuarial_Borg The_Actuarial_Borg is offline
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un-hedged Shorting England? Borg is putting his money where his mouth is.

I dont follow the london market, but my take on the US is that SPY likes sitting at 300 for a while. Overall, I dont hate shorts right now as I dont see another big jump, but still the risk of slow increases over the next few months could put you down 3-5% total. Not a terrible risk/reward play.
The market hasnt priced in the coming 14 day quarantine rule coming June 8th.

Also, the UK is on life support right now. They dont have the firepower the US has for fiscal spending.

Additionally, schools wont be re-opening fully today (50% of parents kept their kids home) which shows just how little trust there is in the Govt. Since England opened up today, I fully expect a smaller wave of infections in a few weeks.

And of course, there is Brexit. If they dont agree by July 1st on an extension, the market will drop like a rock because then it is hard Brexit come Jan 1

Thats when I will buy them back. I think 10-20% return ia not unreasonable given the FTSE is at 6,130 (figure it will drop to 5,000-5,400)
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  #2853  
Old 06-01-2020, 10:55 AM
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Like I said, I dont hate that short. Downside risk doesnt look too bad (risk of quick UK recovery), upside targets are not unreasonable (10% market drop), and you have a specific exit point in mind (july). You should also have a stop loss point in mind (10%?)

Id say lack of fiscal spending measures + Brexit date are on your side. There is an off chance the EU trys to lure them back using their current desperation as leverage.

We should have a 'devils advocate' game, where you post your potions and some one agrees to take the opposite side.
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  #2854  
Old 06-01-2020, 01:11 PM
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I'm planning on taking a 5-year long bet on Canadian Banks...
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  #2855  
Old 06-01-2020, 01:25 PM
The_Actuarial_Borg The_Actuarial_Borg is offline
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I'm planning on taking a 5-year long bet on Canadian Banks...
Really?

They seem pretty profitable to me.

Canadian Real Estate on the other hand, I would short.
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  #2856  
Old 06-01-2020, 01:49 PM
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Really?

They seem pretty profitable to me.

Canadian Real Estate on the other hand, I would short.
They do to me as well. That's why I'm planning on buying them with a 5 year horizon. Maybe I'm using some terms incorrectly?

Basically, I can borrow money for less than what they are paying in dividends. So I'm buying now, paying later.
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  #2857  
Old 06-01-2020, 02:16 PM
The_Actuarial_Borg The_Actuarial_Borg is offline
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They do to me as well. That's why I'm planning on buying them with a 5 year horizon. Maybe I'm using some terms incorrectly?

Basically, I can borrow money for less than what they are paying in dividends. So I'm buying now, paying later.
Sorry, for some reason I saw "short" instead of "long" in your post.

Makes sense now.
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  #2858  
Old 06-02-2020, 11:21 PM
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I bought 100 shares of SRNE on May 18th and now they are facing a class action lawsuit for shares sold between May 15th and the 22nd.
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  #2859  
Old 06-03-2020, 08:40 AM
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I bought 100 shares of SRNE on May 18th and now they are facing a class action lawsuit for shares sold between May 15th and the 22nd.
in the Pharma vaccine 'pump and dump' cycle, those dates look a lot like the 'dump' part of the cycle.

Ive been wondering how much anyone would care that like 20 biotechs showed flashes of positive results, saw their stock jump 100%, and then reported massive stock sales by execs at that company. then a week later the positive results are scaled back to just 'some progress with more work to do'.

I have watched a lot of these over the last 2 months and I just cant find a way to play them. By the time they announce the pump, stock is already up to its max so you cant play the up. The only hole I see is shorting the stock for a day after the initial pump, but I am not into that much downside risk.

Betting on Pharma before they start to pump is just playing individual numbers on roulette. Big payoffs if you hit with low probability.

My conclusion is to either full pass on biotech or buy something like PPH to get higher level exposure. Still looking into if there are buying ops in the distribution/production side.
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