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  #491  
Old 01-22-2020, 12:32 PM
Alemana19 Alemana19 is offline
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Originally Posted by Jdevil View Post
I don't actually believe this is what made a difference. I don't know if it is different for US, but at least for Canada, FV-C was MUCH MORE difficult and time consuming than FV-A. Non-transition candidates had to pass both, so even if they performed fairly well for FV-A, they might have failed anyway. I would also think they probably studied much more for FV-C as there was a ton of content, very significantly more than there is for DP-A for instance. I would say I probably studied 50/50 for DP-A/FV-A, but I would have never done 50/50 for FV-C/FV-A.
So it's just a coincidence that non transition candidates did so much worse? Historically pass rates for GH Core aren't quite that bad. Were we all just that much stupider as a group?

If you did study 50/50 for DPA and FVA that's a strategic error since DPA is 3 hours and FVA is 2 hours. FVC is 3 hours, of course it makes sense to spend more time on it than FVA. It would have made no sense for FV candidates to study 50/50 for FVC and FVA, why are you assuming that's what they did?
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  #492  
Old 01-22-2020, 02:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Alemana19 View Post
So it's just a coincidence that non transition candidates did so much worse? Historically pass rates for GH Core aren't quite that bad. Were we all just that much stupider as a group?
The real huge advantage is not the fact that you can sleep, is that you can pass a portion without passing the other. Non-transition did not have that possibility. It seems a fair bit of people passed only FV-A, and that is a complete net improvement to the usual grading process.

I do believe it is ridiculous to think that a night of sleep accounted for a 20% increased pass rate.

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Originally Posted by Alemana19 View Post
If you did study 50/50 for DPA and FVA that's a strategic error since DPA is 3 hours and FVA is 2 hours.
Very hard disagree. The exam hours are a very good reference, but not an absolute, and it's up to the student to judge what time is necessary for each part to ensure a pass. I personally judged that the FV-A material required more than 66% of the effort needed for DP-A, despite what the exam hours could tell you. Similarly, you should NOT study 2.5 times more for Advanced that Specialty.

If you want another metric, I have the number of pages in source material from MATE's schedule. The FV part has 566 pages and the DP part has 468 pages. Again, I'm not implying you need to study (566/[566+468])% of your time for FV, but I do believe you are the one making a strategic error if you think studying 60/40 is the absolute way to go.

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Originally Posted by Alemana19 View Post
FVC is 3 hours, of course it makes sense to spend more time on it than FVA. It would have made no sense for FV candidates to study 50/50 for FVC and FVA, why are you assuming that's what they did?
I never assumed that. I said the exact opposite: Because FV-C is such a huge monster compared to DP-A (despite what your exam hours could tell you), it would make sense that transitional candidates had more time to invest for FV-C.

In fact, from my experience, I think the level of difficulty/work for each 4 parts looked something like this:
FV-C(C) >>> DP-A > DP-C > FV-A

Coincidentally, here is the number of source reading pages from MATE schedule:
FV-CC: 1080 pages
DP-A: 468 pages
FV-A: 566 pages
DP-C: 721 pages
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  #493  
Old 01-22-2020, 02:37 PM
Alemana19 Alemana19 is offline
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If your argument that the exams were reorganized into an easier exam- DP and a harder exam- FV- then the non-transition pass rates would reflect that.

You'd expect the DP pass rate to be a bit higher than normal and FV to be a bit lower than normal. However, both pass rates were lower than normal, it's just that FV was a ton lower. But it's not like DP was an average pass rate let alone above average.

Yes I absolutely do believe an exhausted candidate that had a very brief lunch break to recover will do a lot worse than a fresh candidate, all other variables being approximately equal. Everyone is smart, and everyone studies. Being sharper in the moment than the competition makes a huge difference.

Page counts aren't everything. Some pages can be repetitive and simple, and some could be really dense. Exam hours tell you what % of the exam will be devoted to those learning objectives... Correct that it doesn't say how weighty those learning objectives are, but exam hours (assuming a 5 hour exam with 2 parts) do tell you a lot. I did not make comments about specialty vs advanced, that's completely different. We'll agree to disagree on strategies. And we'll both get where we're going.
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  #494  
Old 01-22-2020, 04:17 PM
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lol every post you make is about the transition and transition candidates and how unfair everything is

Give it up. It's not like transition candidates had a vote in how this was all going to go down. I'm sure most transition candidates would much rather have nothing change and not have the pressure of potentially losing a passed exam credit if they don't pass both components by the end of the deadline.

You railing against the transition multiple times a day just makes you look whiny
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  #495  
Old 01-22-2020, 05:36 PM
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the alpha transition candidate vs the beta non-transition candidate who will win

...that feeling when nontransition candidate
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  #496  
Old 01-23-2020, 09:39 AM
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I think the thing people are overlooking is a higher than normal amount of transitional candidates, it was their second or more time (assuming that people tried to pass and avoid transition and didn't). I see the difference in pass rate as the non-transitional is higher than normal first timers (even if they took core or advanced in the past, half their exam would be new) while the transition is higher than normal second+ timers. Many of the non-transition it was likely their first FSA exam ever. That makes so much more sense to me than a night of sleep making a difference.
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  #497  
Old 01-23-2020, 09:51 AM
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i had taken GHA in the spring, so n=1 that DPA+FVA was effectively my 2nd attempt.

my personal data for pass rate by attempt is:

First attempt: 43%
2nd attempt: 75%
3rd attempt: 100%
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  #498  
Old 01-23-2020, 11:41 AM
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I was curious, so I took a stab at putting together a simplified model for the impact of the transition grading structure. I assumed grades on each segment were both binomially distributed (n = 10, p = 0.57; chosen to get 0-10 integer values and a combined pass rate in the mid-40s), a candidate's scores on each segment are independent (definitely not true), and combined scores were calculated by the SOA as a 60/40 weighted average of 3-hour/2-hour then rounded down.

In that scenario, a transition candidate gets a 15%-20% bump on each segment from how their exam is graded vs just getting a combined full exam grade. A transition candidate would have a 59% chance of passing the 3-hour segment (56% chance of passing the 3-hour segment on its own, plus 3% chance of failing 3-hour but passing the full exam) and a 65% chance of passing the 2-hour segment (56% chance of passing the 2-hour segment on its own, plus 9% chance of failing 2-hour but passing the full exam), vs just a 44% chance of a non-transition candidate passing the full exam.

That's obviously not a realistic model, but I think it does suggest that the ability to get an individual segment grade is likely responsible for a large portion of the transition/non-transition pass rate differentials.
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  #499  
Old 01-23-2020, 12:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fsunoles View Post
I think the thing people are overlooking is a higher than normal amount of transitional candidates, it was their second or more time (assuming that people tried to pass and avoid transition and didn't). I see the difference in pass rate as the non-transitional is higher than normal first timers (even if they took core or advanced in the past, half their exam would be new) while the transition is higher than normal second+ timers. Many of the non-transition it was likely their first FSA exam ever. That makes so much more sense to me than a night of sleep making a difference.
That could also be a factor, but I'd just like to mention I was personally actively trying to be in the transition considering the advantages lol. n=1 for me first time advanced, and I definitely think this transition was a golden opportunity.
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  #500  
Old 01-28-2020, 02:23 PM
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I see 175 names repeated in both lists. If I didn't make a mistake, that means the "normal" pass rate of the exam is 175/361 = 48.5%. The only bias to that would be the candidates who studied for one but not the other, which would decrease the pass rate a bit.

The extra passes are bonus due to the transition allowing a partial pass. So no, I definitely don't think a night of sleep has any significant impact.
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