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View Poll Results: Best return in the calendar year of 2020
S&P500 (with dividends) 13 40.63%
Cash 3 9.38%
Bitcoin 10 31.25%
Gold 5 15.63%
Oil 1 3.13%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 02-04-2020, 09:57 AM
kimjongfun kimjongfun is offline
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Default Best Return in 2020, S&P500, Bitcoin, Gold, Oil, or Cash

This will be the 3rd year we do this competition and its been interesting so far.

Choose the asset class from the options listed that you think will have the best return in the calendar year of 2020 (using Dec 31st closing values for 2019 to Dec 31st closing value in 2020).

2020 Starting values and 2020 returns so far:
Cash: (using 2.05% return for 2020, +0.19% thus far)
S&P500: 3230.78, (+2.0%)
Bitcoin: 7171.09 (+27.2%)
Gold: 1523.1 (+2.7%)
Oil: 61.06 (-17.1%)


In 2018 cash won by nature of everything else experiencing losses on the year
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...=328598&page=6

1st place: Cash +1.4% (with savings account interest as of January 18)
2nd place: S&P 500 -4.75% (with reinvested dividends)
3rd place: Gold -6.2%
4th place: Bitcoin -73.56%

Oil wasn't a choice that year. Stedit and yoyo were the only 2 of 42 voters to pick cash that year.

In 2019 we had 6 of 45 voters pick correctly by choosing bitcoin
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...=337303&page=3
George Frankly, hostess, Kenny, LifeIsAPoissonProcess, Maximally Qualified, redearedslider

Ending Values and Returns
Bitcoin: 7171.09 (+91.4%)
Oil: 61.06 (+34.5%)
S&P 500: 3230.78 (+31.5% w/ dividends reinvested)
Gold: 1523.1 (+18.9%)
Cash: (+2.25%)

Edit 2/10/20: realized I had some horrific editing on this post and cleaned it up a bit

Last edited by kimjongfun; 02-10-2020 at 02:25 PM..
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  #2  
Old 02-04-2020, 10:27 AM
CowboyGuy CowboyGuy is offline
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I think whether or not Trump gets re-elected will have a big impact on S&P.

President Bernie Sanders might cause the stocks to crash in the short term.

A portion of that expectation might already be built in the prices as we head towards the elections.
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  #3  
Old 02-04-2020, 12:33 PM
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LifeIsAPoissonProcess LifeIsAPoissonProcess is offline
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Bitcoin again
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Old 02-04-2020, 12:36 PM
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George Frankly George Frankly is offline
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Originally Posted by LifeIsAPoissonProcess View Post
Bitcoin again
Itís tempting, but Iím gonna go with a pullback in the S&P, and bitcoinís bubble bursting, and gold coming on with a flight to safety. Based on, you know, very little.

If I get it right two years in a row then Iíll start thinking about timing the market! Personally, Iím mostly in the Russell 2000 index fund, with a bit of bond fund and a small stake in dividend stock.
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by George Frankly View Post
Itís tempting, but Iím gonna go with a pullback in the S&P, and bitcoinís bubble bursting, and gold coming on with a flight to safety. Based on, you know, very little.
My opinion would be close to this, except bitcoin saw a 45% drop from its highs in 2019 ove rthe 2nd half of the year. I would guess the winners are bitcoin (50%), gold (40%) and cash (10%). Not very bullish on S&P regardless of who is elected.
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:50 PM
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George Frankly George Frankly is offline
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Originally Posted by Kenny View Post
My opinion would be close to this, except bitcoin saw a 45% drop from its highs in 2019 ove rthe 2nd half of the year. I would guess the winners are bitcoin (50%), gold (40%) and cash (10%). Not very bullish on S&P regardless of who is elected.
Good point on BTC, and I agree on S&P, it feels a bit frothy. Deficit is high, rates are low, I don't see a ton of upside in equities this year.
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Old 02-04-2020, 03:06 PM
kimjongfun kimjongfun is offline
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the higher the debt goes the lower we need rates to be in order to finance it. More debt = lower rates (even negative?) = higher equities
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Old 02-04-2020, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by kimjongfun View Post
the higher the debt goes the lower we need rates to be in order to finance it. More debt = lower rates (even negative?) = higher equities
Iím probably underestimating the probability we pass another large, unfunded tax cut to add to the deficit, which could nudge the S&P higher.
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Old 02-06-2020, 09:38 AM
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Lol at the boomers that voted cash and gold.
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Old 02-06-2020, 09:43 AM
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presidential election year, solid underlying fundamentals (hand wave over govt debt), i'm going with s&p
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