Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Cyberchat > Non-Actuarial Topics
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

DW Simpson Global Actuarial & Analytics Recruitment
Download our Actuarial Salary Survey
now with state-by-state salary information!


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-30-2020, 09:14 AM
The_Actuarial_Borg The_Actuarial_Borg is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,168
Default What will happen to the restaurant industry because of the Pandemic?

You've all probably seen me post about eating out (fine dining specially), but I also go to many smaller places in London (and around Europe) because I like local cuisine. I am a big foodie.

One thing that sets London apart from most places in the world (NYC is similar) is the variety of food due to the many small, local restaurants (usually owned by immigrants from all over the world)

These places do not have big margins, and I just don't see how they will survive if they have to implement social distancing rules. So far I have come up with a list of places that are lilely to survive:

1. Big Chains (they can rely on capital markets and shareholders to tie them over). Think McDonalds, Burger King etc..

2. Small/mid size restaurants that own their building (this includes fine dining places). Margins tend to be higher as they do not pay rent.

3. Pop up restaurants (mobile ones). You see these from time to time in London and they tend to have small overheads (street food places use this model).

4. Outdoor restaurant (all sizes)

5. Pubs (these are a special UK case). Some pay rent (so are likely to not survive), while others depend on volume (foot traffic). These are also unlikely to survive.

In the aggregate, I estimate probably 50-60% of all restaurants in the London area will be wiped out. Many are trying to subsist on delivery only, but that is just not going to work long-term.

The only positive aspect of the situation in London is that all the private equity backed eateries will also be wiped out. Horrible, horrible food at astronomical prices, which in London was on the rise (to my horror).

What is the restaurant situation were you guys live?

Last edited by The_Actuarial_Borg; 05-30-2020 at 09:35 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-30-2020, 09:19 AM
Abelian Grape's Avatar
Abelian Grape Abelian Grape is offline
Meme-ber                         Meme-ber
CAS
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Favorite beer: Allagash Curieux
Posts: 43,399
Default

A lot of the good places are doing takeout boxes. Even Stone Barns at Blue Hill. Momofuku already took a hit. Bar Wayo closed (was a big fan) and they're moving Ssam Bar from East Village to Wayo's location in Seaport. Gotham Bar & Grill already closed for good due to this after 36 years in business. Peter Luger started doing delivery for the first time to try and keep afloat. This has been absolutely devastating for the industry here and it's expected we'll be seeing a lot of vacant spots once things open back up. The demand is will still be here so long as lockdown is gone, so who knows what comes back or opens up.

Foley's (baseball themed bar) just went out of business: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs...ll-not-reopen-

Silk Cakes closed for good: https://www.instagram.com/p/CAy1Ca5jpeG/

Takashi closed: https://www.takashinyc.com/



OTOH, places like Llama San (Peruvian-Japanese) just reopened for takeout/delivery.

Daniel Boulud's kitchen is doing a 3-course takeout for only $75: https://www.exploretock.com/danielbouludkitchen

McSorley's reopened.

Jean-Georges is now doing delivery: https://www.jean-georges.com/delivery
__________________

live laugh love

Last edited by Abelian Grape; 05-30-2020 at 09:26 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-30-2020, 09:27 AM
The_Actuarial_Borg The_Actuarial_Borg is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,168
Default

I would be very sad if places like Viet Food dissapear here in London.

I love their food. But they depend on volume and are indoors, so I just don't see how they will survive long-term.

They are also doing take out only now.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 05-30-2020, 09:31 AM
The_Actuarial_Borg The_Actuarial_Borg is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,168
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Abelian Grape View Post
A lot of the good places are doing takeout boxes. Even Stone Barns at Blue Hill. Momofuku already took a hit. Bar Wayo closed (was a big fan) and they're moving Ssam Bar from East Village to Wayo's location in Seaport. Gotham Bar & Grill already closed for good due to this after 36 years in business. Peter Luger started doing delivery for the first time to try and keep afloat. This has been absolutely devastating for the industry here and it's expected we'll be seeing a lot of vacant spots once things open back up. The demand is will still be here so long as lockdown is gone, so who knows what comes back or opens up.

Foley's (baseball themed bar) just went out of business: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs...ll-not-reopen-

Silk Cakes closed for good: https://www.instagram.com/p/CAy1Ca5jpeG/

Takashi closed: https://www.takashinyc.com/



OTOH, places like Llama San (Peruvian-Japanese) just reopened for takeout/delivery.

Daniel Boulud's kitchen is doing a 3-course takeout for only $75: https://www.exploretock.com/danielbouludkitchen

McSorley's reopened.

Jean-Georges is now doing delivery: https://www.jean-georges.com/delivery
I recently tried fine dining "take out"

Hakkasan here in London does it (they signed up to Deliveroo)

It was ok, but its not the same (part of the experience is the venue and service)
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 05-30-2020, 09:37 AM
Abelian Grape's Avatar
Abelian Grape Abelian Grape is offline
Meme-ber                         Meme-ber
CAS
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Favorite beer: Allagash Curieux
Posts: 43,399
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Actuarial_Borg View Post
part of the experience is the venue and service


I'd do it for certain entrees. E.g., apparently the burgers from Peter Luger hold up well during delivery but I wouldn't get a steak. Definitely wouldn't do a multi-course dinner by delivery/takeout.
__________________

live laugh love
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 05-30-2020, 01:17 PM
Arroway's Avatar
Arroway Arroway is offline
Member
CAS SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In a house
Studying for Done, bois!
College: UConn
Favorite beer: Barq's or Mug, or any local Root Beer with caffeine
Posts: 1,714
Default

The volume issue will be a big deal in London, moreso than in other cities I've lived in or visited. There are a lot of restaurants with a pretty small number of tables. This is probably true in a lot of big cities, but it seemed even more the case in London. We're talking about places with 10-20 tables. Or some have more, but it's accomplished by having people right on top of each other. To appropriately social distance inside the restaurant, they'd probably be down to 5 tables, which is not sustainable.

There were two excellent Thai places in Wimbledon, that I think have both closed. One was down close to the station (Suk Saran) and the other was at the top of the hill (Thai Tho). We alternated between those two pretty regularly. Neither one could've had more than 20 tables, Suk Saran probably had closer to 15.

Another place up in the village, it may be a chain, is Le Pain Quotidien. They had community tables, that sat probably 12-15 people. No way that will fly anymore. They did have smaller tables too, but that storefront is pretty small, so again, they just can't fit enough people at a time to have a sustainable business model.

In the Midwest, where I live now, land is cheaper, and there are a lot more freestanding places, and places with more room inside. So, maybe a little more feasible to maintain, but we'll see.
__________________
Arroway, Injustice 2 Raid Leader

All opinions are either my own, or made up for dramatic and/or comedic effect.

Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 05-30-2020, 02:39 PM
Colonel Smoothie's Avatar
Colonel Smoothie Colonel Smoothie is online now
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
College: Jamba Juice University
Favorite beer: AO Amber Ale
Posts: 50,640
Default

nothing, once the economy reopens people will go back to them like normal

people would still be going to them if there weren't a lockdown
__________________
Recommended Readings for the EL Actuary || Recommended Readings for the EB Actuary

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wigmeister General View Post
Don't you even think about sending me your resume. I'll turn it into an origami boulder and return it to you.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 05-30-2020, 02:45 PM
The_Actuarial_Borg The_Actuarial_Borg is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,168
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arroway View Post
The volume issue will be a big deal in London, moreso than in other cities I've lived in or visited. There are a lot of restaurants with a pretty small number of tables. This is probably true in a lot of big cities, but it seemed even more the case in London. We're talking about places with 10-20 tables. Or some have more, but it's accomplished by having people right on top of each other. To appropriately social distance inside the restaurant, they'd probably be down to 5 tables, which is not sustainable.

There were two excellent Thai places in Wimbledon, that I think have both closed. One was down close to the station (Suk Saran) and the other was at the top of the hill (Thai Tho). We alternated between those two pretty regularly. Neither one could've had more than 20 tables, Suk Saran probably had closer to 15.

Another place up in the village, it may be a chain, is Le Pain Quotidien. They had community tables, that sat probably 12-15 people. No way that will fly anymore. They did have smaller tables too, but that storefront is pretty small, so again, they just can't fit enough people at a time to have a sustainable business model.

In the Midwest, where I live now, land is cheaper, and there are a lot more freestanding places, and places with more room inside. So, maybe a little more feasible to maintain, but we'll see.
Haven't been to Wimbledon in a while. My aunt/uncle usually come to see the Tennis but this year it got cancelled.

You ever been to the Dog & Fox Pub in the Village?

Last edited by The_Actuarial_Borg; 05-30-2020 at 02:49 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 05-30-2020, 02:47 PM
The_Actuarial_Borg The_Actuarial_Borg is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,168
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colonel Smoothie View Post
nothing, once the economy reopens people will go back to them like normal

people would still be going to them if there weren't a lockdown
For a guy who is desperate to further himself socio-economically, you seem completely oblivious to the role of meals & socialising.

This will impact many things. Sharing food between people is a huge ice breaker.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 05-30-2020, 02:49 PM
Abelian Grape's Avatar
Abelian Grape Abelian Grape is offline
Meme-ber                         Meme-ber
CAS
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Favorite beer: Allagash Curieux
Posts: 43,399
Default

Yup. Similar to London, space is VERY expensive in NYC. If the new normal is people being spaced further apart, then fewer patrons can be placed in locations with already ridiculously low margins. The only thing that could make things viable here again is to get property prices to drop.
__________________

live laugh love
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:27 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.31113 seconds with 9 queries