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  #1  
Old 08-01-2008, 10:20 PM
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retsamssa retsamssa is offline
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Default Task 6

I was working on this today and was pretty frustrated because I knew I had a cubic regression but excel wouldn't do it for me, and you know I'm too lazy to actually calculate it. I found a spreadsheet on this website that will do them for you in excel. Hopefully it helps.

http://udel.edu/~mcdonald/statcurvreg.html
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  #2  
Old 08-02-2008, 10:01 AM
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Is there still going to be hedging for task 6? or it will be zero? the instruction didn't mention anything about it for task 6 -- or maybe I didn't get enough sleep to notice if it did...
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Old 08-02-2008, 10:25 AM
BGActuary BGActuary is offline
 
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lack of sleep is my drug as well. sorry, for the unrelated note...carry on
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Old 08-02-2008, 01:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retsamssa View Post
I was working on this today and was pretty frustrated because I knew I had a cubic regression but excel wouldn't do it for me, and you know I'm too lazy to actually calculate it. I found a spreadsheet on this website that will do them for you in excel. Hopefully it helps.

http://udel.edu/~mcdonald/statcurvreg.html
What exactly did you need the regression for? I have only done the expenses but simple A/E studies work great to get factors that produce not-ever-acheived-in-reality fit.
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Old 08-02-2008, 01:35 PM
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What exactly did you need the regression for? I have only done the expenses but simple A/E studies work great to get factors that produce not-ever-acheived-in-reality fit.
there are couple of places where you could use regression, but I don't think you need any thing nonlinear
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Old 08-02-2008, 04:46 PM
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I looked at just total costs.

Quadratic
x2 coefficient: 1602.832034
x coefficient: -6411.73505
y intercept: 4511914.605584
r2: 0.784408
degrees of freedom: 15
P-value of quadratic: 0.00001
P-value of increase in r2: 0.025595

Cubic
x3 coefficient: 625.356221
x2 coefficient: -16219.820274
x coefficient: 132730.024195
y intercept: 4262397.473276
r2: 0.993817
degrees of freedom: 14
P-value of cubic: 1.08E-15
P-value of increase in r2: 2.61E-14

So I pretty much exactly matched the total costs of the company in the past. I was just going to argue in task 7 that since this is cubic if anything it will be an overestimate of costs, which is conservative. I forgot about the closing costs in task 7 increasing at the rate of inflation. so I will have to try and back out the rate of inflation somehow. I hate the Final Assesment so much.
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Old 08-03-2008, 11:41 AM
davidcp davidcp is offline
 
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Hey,

Did you guy bother finding the new assumptions for Labor for 1 shift? I'm thinking, it will not be used in the future so why bother.

Also, did you round your assumptions (to the nearest $10,000 for example)?

Last edited by davidcp; 08-03-2008 at 12:41 PM..
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  #8  
Old 08-03-2008, 12:56 PM
Absolutsju Absolutsju is offline
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Default FA6 - Hedging

Anyone have thoughts on the hedging factor for Task 6?

In instructions (above the picture of the truck) - "your recommendations to conduct 13 assays, to use an 80% forward hedging program...enthusiastically received." Also in the note to candidates on same page, "Use these new conclusions for Tasks 6-7"

So, I guess we should hardcode a hedge of 0.8. I can't think of why this wouldn't have been done in the Task 6-7 spreadsheet. Maybe SOA is just testing to see if we read instructions carefully???
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Old 08-03-2008, 01:45 PM
BGActuary BGActuary is offline
 
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gosh, I am starting on task 6 and it looks so much fun that I am not sure where to start!
I understand conceptually what we need to do, but I can not get started to move things around.

I have one q specific Q at the moment: Do we need to estimate the exchange rate or we just keep in at the new rate that they gave us. I noticed in some old posts that people were trying to back into the FX using teh forward price. by the way, are the actual forward prices used in the experience analysis?

thanks again for your thoughts
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  #10  
Old 08-03-2008, 01:51 PM
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I just used 1.08 for that

Quote:
Originally Posted by BGActuary View Post
gosh, I am starting on task 6 and it looks so much fun that I am not sure where to start!
I understand conceptually what we need to do, but I can not get started to move things around.

I have one q specific Q at the moment: Do we need to estimate the exchange rate or we just keep in at the new rate that they gave us. I noticed in some old posts that people were trying to back into the FX using teh forward price. by the way, are the actual forward prices used in the experience analysis?

thanks again for your thoughts
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