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  #21  
Old 03-17-2015, 02:27 PM
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I continue to maintain (as I have in other threads) that true autonomy is far off, and even McKinsey may be too optimistic. Here's a good article that talks about the technological and infrastructural* hurdles that would have to be overcome:

http://fortune.com/2015/02/18/the-hy...s-it-overdone/


* as a reminder, we can't even get our legislators to act on current infrastructure problems.
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  #22  
Old 03-17-2015, 02:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Moore View Post
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_te...ort_shows.html

McKinsey says cars will be fully autonomous by 2040.
it appears to me that they are talking about new cars by 2040. It will take longer than that to get all the older cars off the road. Somebody do a survey of how old are cars owned by AO people. . . They may tend to be newer that all cars in the country.

Quote:
Originally Posted by r. mutt View Post
I continue to maintain (as I have in other threads) that true autonomy is far off, and even McKinsey may be too optimistic. Here's a good article that talks about the technological and infrastructural* hurdles that would have to be overcome:

http://fortune.com/2015/02/18/the-hy...s-it-overdone/


* as a reminder, we can't even get our legislators to act on current infrastructure problems.
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  #23  
Old 03-17-2015, 04:01 PM
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Automobile first invented ~1885: http://www.loc.gov/rr/scitech/mysteries/auto.html

Automobile first mass produced ~1908: http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits...8/model.t.html

Self driving automobile first invented ~2005: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_car

Self driving automobile first mass produced ~2030?: Possibly

Also, recall that the real automobile infrastructure (paved highways, reliable road maps, traffic signals, pedestrian cross walks, etc.) didn't really exist until well after cars were mass produced.
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Last edited by Ron Weasley; 03-17-2015 at 04:04 PM.. Reason: Add the "also" part
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  #24  
Old 03-17-2015, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Ron Weasley View Post
Automobile first invented ~1885: http://www.loc.gov/rr/scitech/mysteries/auto.html

Automobile first mass produced ~1908: http://www.thehenryford.org/exhibits...8/model.t.html

"Self driving" automobile that actually requires multiple runs over the test area for mapping and no changes in condition or inclement weather invented ~2005: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_driverless_car

Self driving automobile first mass produced ~2030?: No chance

Also, recall that the real automobile infrastructure (paved highways, reliable road maps, traffic signals, pedestrian cross walks, etc.) didn't really exist until well after cars were mass produced.
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  #25  
Old 03-17-2015, 04:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JMO View Post
it appears to me that they are talking about new cars by 2040. It will take longer than that to get all the older cars off the road. Somebody do a survey of how old are cars owned by AO people. . . They may tend to be newer that all cars in the country.


Average age of cars currently in use is about 11 years. It will take a long time for fleet to cycle.
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  #26  
Old 03-17-2015, 04:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JMO View Post
it appears to me that they are talking about new cars by 2040. It will take longer than that to get all the older cars off the road. Somebody do a survey of how old are cars owned by AO people. . . They may tend to be newer that all cars in the country.


I think you mean older.
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  #27  
Old 03-17-2015, 05:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dukelampard View Post
I think you mean older.
I meant newer. The AO population is mostly college-educated, many already employed at well over min. wage. And the younger ones don't have a passel of kids.
OK, I admit that I started out in the Po.
People working min wage or thereabout, with only a high school education, and with families to support, don't buy current model cars, and hold onto them so long as they can be made to run.
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My latest favorite quotes, updated Nov. 20, 2018.

Spoiler:
I should keep these four permanently.
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Originally Posted by rekrap View Post
JMO is right
Quote:
Originally Posted by campbell View Post
I agree with JMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westley View Post
And def agree w/ JMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MG View Post
This. And everything else JMO wrote.
And this all purpose permanent quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr T Non-Fan View Post
Yup, it is always someone else's fault.
MORE:
All purpose response for careers forum:
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoctorNo View Post
Depends upon the employer and the situation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by El Actuario View Post
Therapists should ask the right questions, not give the right answers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
I feel like ERM is 90% buzzwords, and that the underlying agenda is to make sure at least one of your Corporate Officers is not dumb.
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