Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Exams - Please Limit Discussion to Exam-Related Topics > SoA/CAS Preliminary Exams > Probability
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions



Probability Old Exam P Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #41  
Old 05-18-2015, 06:12 PM
Apricity Apricity is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: May 2015
College: Northwestern University
Posts: 382
Default

I passed yesterday. Would be shocked if I got any questions wrong.

The exam was MUCH easier than I expected. The questions were all on the level of the first 100 soa problems (bar a few clever ones that took a while). I studied using ASM, which I highly recommend against. Great textbook, terrible study guide. Overstudied by so much.

It's actually, at the end of the day, a really straightforward exam. No need to stress.
Reply With Quote
  #42  
Old 05-18-2015, 06:14 PM
emily-918 emily-918 is offline
SOA
 
Join Date: May 2015
College: UCLA
Posts: 20
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apricity View Post
I passed yesterday. Would be shocked if I got any questions wrong.

The exam was MUCH easier than I expected. The questions were all on the level of the first 100 soa problems (bar a few clever ones that took a while). I studied using ASM, which I highly recommend against. Great textbook, terrible study guide. Overstudied by so much.

It's actually, at the end of the day, a really straightforward exam. No need to stress.
wow! is it really that easy??? I've done the soa 240 and 4 TIA exams?? Will I be in a good shape? haha
Reply With Quote
  #43  
Old 05-18-2015, 06:43 PM
Apricity Apricity is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: May 2015
College: Northwestern University
Posts: 382
Default

I just replied to your PM, but I'll give my thoughts here for others.

I did ASM, ACTEX, SOA 240, and a few random exams I found online. Maybe my judgement of the difficulty of the exam was skewed by how hard the practice exams I did were (thanks ASM), but I think a 21 is achievable with just a basic understanding of poisson, exponential, combinatorics and laws or probability.
Reply With Quote
  #44  
Old 05-18-2015, 07:06 PM
zjbarden's Avatar
zjbarden zjbarden is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: New York, NY
Studying for 1/P
College: St. John's University
Favorite beer: Angry Orchard
Posts: 131
Blog Entries: 6
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apricity View Post
I just replied to your PM, but I'll give my thoughts here for others.

I did ASM, ACTEX, SOA 240, and a few random exams I found online. Maybe my judgement of the difficulty of the exam was skewed by how hard the practice exams I did were (thanks ASM), but I think a 21 is achievable with just a basic understanding of poisson, exponential, combinatorics and laws or probability.
So you're saying that a majority of the exam was a doable difficulty and that it mainly consisted of Poisson, exponential, basic probability concepts, combinations/permutations (possibly hypergeometric?), and that the remaining 10 or so questions fulfilled the multivariate requirement?
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by CubsPhan View Post
Unfortunately you've joined the AO, where enthusiasm for being an actuary goes to die.
P | FM | MFE | MLC | C
Economics | Applied Statistics | Corporate Finance

"Those who fail to plan, plan to fail. Therefore, I must plan my work, and work my plan."
Reply With Quote
  #45  
Old 05-18-2015, 07:17 PM
Apricity Apricity is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: May 2015
College: Northwestern University
Posts: 382
Default

All of the exam was, in my opinion, of a doable difficulty. You are correct on the main areas tested on the exam--I encountered no hypergeometric distributions, and no gamma thank the lord. There were barely any multivariate questions--maybe 3 or 4.

The hardest questions (there were 2 that threw me off for a while) were just...really odd. One had to do with this whacked up multivariate uniform distribution, and the other one had to do with mutlivariate conditional variance (but I had done a similar problem before so thankfully I didn't need to do the math during the test).
Reply With Quote
  #46  
Old 05-18-2015, 07:38 PM
zjbarden's Avatar
zjbarden zjbarden is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: New York, NY
Studying for 1/P
College: St. John's University
Favorite beer: Angry Orchard
Posts: 131
Blog Entries: 6
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apricity View Post
All of the exam was, in my opinion, of a doable difficulty. You are correct on the main areas tested on the exam--I encountered no hypergeometric distributions, and no gamma thank the lord. There were barely any multivariate questions--maybe 3 or 4.

The hardest questions (there were 2 that threw me off for a while) were just...really odd. One had to do with this whacked up multivariate uniform distribution, and the other one had to do with mutlivariate conditional variance (but I had done a similar problem before so thankfully I didn't need to do the math during the test).
Thank the Lord indeed LOL.. I usually end up approaching hypergeometric problems as Bayes/Counting and at the end realize it's hyper.

Multivariate conditional variances are the worst IMO, just because of how tedious they are. I'll keep my eyes out for it on Thursday, though.

Congratulations on passing, by the way!
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by CubsPhan View Post
Unfortunately you've joined the AO, where enthusiasm for being an actuary goes to die.
P | FM | MFE | MLC | C
Economics | Applied Statistics | Corporate Finance

"Those who fail to plan, plan to fail. Therefore, I must plan my work, and work my plan."
Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 05-18-2015, 07:40 PM
Apricity Apricity is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: May 2015
College: Northwestern University
Posts: 382
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by zjbarden View Post
I usually end up approaching hypergeometric problems as Bayes/Counting and at the end realize it's hyper.
Now that you mention it, there was a hypergeometric problem on the test...whoops haha.

Thanks. Sending good vibes in your general direction.
Reply With Quote
  #48  
Old 05-18-2015, 07:54 PM
zjbarden's Avatar
zjbarden zjbarden is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: New York, NY
Studying for 1/P
College: St. John's University
Favorite beer: Angry Orchard
Posts: 131
Blog Entries: 6
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apricity View Post
Now that you mention it, there was a hypergeometric problem on the test...whoops haha.

Thanks. Sending good vibes in your general direction.
Haha well Coaching Actuaries had a great hypergeometric tip: if you have (x a)(y b) / (z c) translated as "x choose a" times "y choose b" divided by "z choose c", you can know if you set up the equation correctly by the following check:

x + y = z
a + b = c

Pretty neat!


Also, appreciating the general vibes, dude.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by CubsPhan View Post
Unfortunately you've joined the AO, where enthusiasm for being an actuary goes to die.
P | FM | MFE | MLC | C
Economics | Applied Statistics | Corporate Finance

"Those who fail to plan, plan to fail. Therefore, I must plan my work, and work my plan."
Reply With Quote
  #49  
Old 05-18-2015, 08:04 PM
emily-918 emily-918 is offline
SOA
 
Join Date: May 2015
College: UCLA
Posts: 20
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apricity View Post
Now that you mention it, there was a hypergeometric problem on the test...whoops haha.

Thanks. Sending good vibes in your general direction.

so was there an actual hypergeometric question on the test?
Reply With Quote
  #50  
Old 05-18-2015, 09:13 PM
Apricity Apricity is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: May 2015
College: Northwestern University
Posts: 382
Default

solvable using basic probability concepts, but yes
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:20 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.25067 seconds with 12 queries