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View Poll Results: Will self driving autos kill car insurance?
Of course 44 15.66%
Maybe but not for a long time 205 72.95%
I'm a luddite... 32 11.39%
Voters: 281. You may not vote on this poll

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  #2161  
Old 01-23-2020, 10:48 AM
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Phew this thread sure took a hard dive.

I'll hand it to all the naysayers out there. Good job on naysaying.

About the only positive I have for 2020 is that autopilot drove another billion miles without killing lots of people.
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Last edited by Sredni Vashtar; 01-23-2020 at 11:46 AM..
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  #2162  
Old 01-23-2020, 11:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
Well, except for one thing. It's entirely possible that the cars themselves will be Big Brother. In some small ways this is already happening. Tesla has a "sentry mode" that constantly records using the car's 8 cameras, and is actually being used to catch vandals and hit-and-runs.
https://electrek.co/2019/04/15/tesla...n-hit-and-run/


Judge signs a warrant for the police to pull Waymo's self-driving car footage of an unrelated hit-and-run that it just happened to witness.

https://gizmodo.com/oh-good-the-new-...dri-1840683007

Welcome to the surveillance state. Good place to be a bicyclist, I guess.


I believe there's going to come a point in the near future when practically speaking all cars have multiple HD cameras, always on, just as a matter of practicality, and nothing happens on a road without it being recorded.
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Last edited by Sredni Vashtar; 01-23-2020 at 01:19 PM..
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  #2163  
Old 01-23-2020, 10:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by campbell View Post
Obligatory negative Jalopnik article, including a picture of the Cruise running a red light. https://jalopnik.com/cruise-is-going...dri-1841143932

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
Phew this thread sure took a hard dive.

I'll hand it to all the naysayers out there. Good job on naysaying..
Woot! We’re sledding down into the Trough of Disillusionment now.
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  #2164  
Old 01-24-2020, 12:50 PM
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A few of the more optimistic predictions in this thread:
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Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
Ford to offer self-driving cars without steering wheels by 2021



http://www.computerworld.com/article...s-by-2021.html

this is happening
(I think Ford has now completely abandoned their AV program.)

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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
when I go to buy a car in 2021 that I will use to commute to work and drive to church and the grocery store and friends' homes and take to the beach once a year and to visit my family at Christmas once a year... a car with no steering wheel or gas or brake pedal is not going to be an option for me in 2021... at any price.
I'm actually going to probably buy a car in 2020 instead of 2021, but I am feeling *extremely* good about my prediction that I will not be able to buy a car at any price that I can actually use to do these things next year.

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Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
everyone's in the race now:

Self-Driving Car Race Sees Flurry of Partnerships


http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016...ance.html?_r=0

you guys betting on "over 2021" are like betting on the Packers to lose when they are up 23 points at halftime
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Originally Posted by Westley View Post
I think we will see very soon - certainly well before 2022 - self-driving vehicles that are so safe that the discussion will turn to "Is it morally acceptable to allow people to continue to drive themselves and cause the associated death and destruction?"
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Originally Posted by campbell View Post
https://mishtalk.com/2016/05/17/ex-g...cking-startup/
Quote:
Drivers take trucks from the warehouse to the hub. The truck drives itself to the next hub. Then a short-haul driver takes the truck the last mile.

With today’s report, I bump up my timeline for this to happen by a year, from 2020 to 2019. I also bump up my forecast from 2024 to 2022 as to when millions of long-haul trucking jobs vanish.
I don't think this is happening, so I think Mish was wrong. And it's definitely not looking like "millions" of long-haul trucking jobs will vanish in the next 2.9 years.

And more predictions can be found on this post:
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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
Some predictions from this thread:
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Old 01-24-2020, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
I'll hand it to all the naysayers out there. Good job on naysaying.


I stand by my position that it's a classic 80/20 problem. Getting something that works 80% of the time requires 20% of the effort. Getting from something that works 80% of the time to something that works 100% of the time requires 80% of the effort.

AV might be more like 90/10 or even 95/5 though. So when we get something that works 95% of the time there's a lot of excitement. Then people slowly realize exactly how difficult that last 5% is going to be.
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  #2166  
Old 01-24-2020, 11:17 PM
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I stand by my position that it's a classic 80/20 problem. Getting something that works 80% of the time requires 20% of the effort. Getting from something that works 80% of the time to something that works 100% of the time requires 80% of the effort.

AV might be more like 90/10 or even 95/5 though. So when we get something that works 95% of the time there's a lot of excitement. Then people slowly realize exactly how difficult that last 5% is going to be.
I mean, I think everyone knew that the end would be hard.

Just how hard is "hard" however is a common emerging technology problem that ranges from "twice as hard as you think it will be, after accounting for this sentence" to "we're making exponential progress now and will be finished in 10^2035 years".
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Old 01-25-2020, 08:18 AM
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I mean, I think everyone knew that the end would be hard.

Just how hard is "hard" however is a common emerging technology problem that ranges from "twice as hard as you think it will be, after accounting for this sentence" to "we're making exponential progress now and will be finished in 10^2035 years".
True, but I mean a lot of the stuff I’ve brought up in this thread seems to me like it would be really hard. I’m not an AV developer, but based on what I do know about programming, it seems like there would be some *really* difficult problems to get something that is practical.
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  #2168  
Old 01-28-2020, 01:32 PM
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Oh, almost forgot, 2019 was the year of self-driving porn, which everyone knows is the breakthrough point for any new technology.
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  #2169  
Old 01-28-2020, 01:57 PM
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https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/...y-never-happen

Quote:
The CEO of Volkswagen's autonomous driving division recently admitted that Level 5 autonomy—that's full computer control of the vehicle with zero limitations—might actually never happen.
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Old 01-30-2020, 07:57 AM
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https://fortune.com/2020/01/29/tesla...earnings-2019/

Quote:
Easily the most surprising part of Tesla's conference call with investors on Wednesday was a significant shift in the expected release schedule – and even capabilities – of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving features. Thousands of Tesla customers have already paid substantial deposits for the technology, which Musk said as recently as October he hoped could be released in 2019.

That goal wasn’t met, and Musk’s statements about a new date of availability were somewhat vague.

“We got pretty close,” said Musk. “It’s looking like we might be feature complete in a few months,” suggesting that Tesla drivers shouldn’t expect the feature during the current quarter, and that investors shouldn’t expect its associated revenue.

Musk also downplayed the near-term functionality of FSD, which despite its name, is not synonymous with fully autonomous driving. “Feature complete just means [the car] has some chance of going from your home to work without intervention. That doesn’t mean the features are working well.” Musk further specified that the FSD software will provide an “above zero” chance that your car can successfully guide itself from one place to another.
Sounds like me delivering a reserve opinion.
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