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Short-Term Actuarial Math Old Exam C Forum

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  #11  
Old 11-13-2019, 12:07 PM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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Wow, the very first part of MLE seemed easy, 4 easy to follow steps or MOM, but the whole variance part is really confusing me. I'm struggling to know how to get the variance of one MLE when the distribution has multiple parameters or if I need to use delta method, or sometimes both in the same problem.

Anyone have a clear, concise breakdown? Otherwise, I'm going to try to come up with something to outline the strategies for the type of questions as previous two posts have said that this is pretty important to the exam.
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  #12  
Old 11-15-2019, 05:40 PM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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Update on progress: finished chi-squared and kolmogorov-smirnov tests. They are both pretty easy, but take quite a bit of time to write out all the charts.
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  #13  
Old 11-15-2019, 10:08 PM
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Make sure you see examples of chi-squared with years instead of other values.

(not Poisson basis, variance in the denominator)

Get accustomed to enter values directly to calculator and use the data columns to your advantage.

It's important you understand when to reject and when not to (accept to the right).

Chi-squared also plays a role with loglikelihood later.

Learn when you can use one and the other (continuous/discrete, grouped or not).
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  #14  
Old 11-16-2019, 01:58 PM
tcnjmathmajor97 tcnjmathmajor97 is offline
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Just finished up section 2/4. Moving onto Credibility Monday. Iíve been doing 10 question quizzes after each subsection and have been doing pretty well on them.
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  #15  
Old 11-16-2019, 01:59 PM
tcnjmathmajor97 tcnjmathmajor97 is offline
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Ugh the CA video on chi-squared with years made no sense to me and there was only one example.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gauchodelpaso View Post
Make sure you see examples of chi-squared with years instead of other values.

(not Poisson basis, variance in the denominator)

Get accustomed to enter values directly to calculator and use the data columns to your advantage.

It's important you understand when to reject and when not to (accept to the right).

Chi-squared also plays a role with loglikelihood later.

Learn when you can use one and the other (continuous/discrete, grouped or not).
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  #16  
Old 11-16-2019, 02:06 PM
tcnjmathmajor97 tcnjmathmajor97 is offline
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CA uses a really fast trick to evaluate Gamma CDF. If X is Gamma with parameters alpha and theta, then F(x) = 1 - P(N<alpha) where N is Poisson with lambda = x/theta. Since alpha is usually small, you only have to add a couple of Poisson probabilities to get the answer. For example, letís say X is Gamma with alpha=2 and theta=100. Then F(50) = 1 - P(N<2) where N is Poisson with lambda=50/100=0.5. So the final answer would be 1 - [P(N=0) + P(N=1)] and you can get the Poisson probabilities at 0 and 1 from the exam tables. Once you get the hang of it it speeds things up TREMENDOUSLY and lets you avoid integration by parts with the Gamma PDF.

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Originally Posted by whatdoactuariesevendo View Post
Good luck to us this coming February!

Currently using CA's Learn and ADAPT (learning section 1.6 at the moment). Almost 1/4 through the material. I'm striving for about 15-20 practice problems per section in Adapt. Planning to finish the material by the end of the year, leaving about 6 weeks for practice exams.

I already know I'm going to be forgetting a lot of this stuff by the time practice exams come around.

How do you spend time "studying" as far as reviewing or memorizing things on the formula sheets(CA sheets, not the given exam tables)?

So far everything is making sense, except for the MGF's and PGF's. I'm having a hard time keeping it all straight! Also, frailty models are weird.

I also still don't quite get how to evaluate the Gamma CDF. It seems like every time it comes up, they use a different method to evaluate.
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  #17  
Old 11-16-2019, 09:51 PM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tcnjmathmajor97 View Post
Ugh the CA video on chi-squared with years made no sense to me and there was only one example.
yes, I agree! Just hoping that after seeing a few examples it will make more sense. He also said it wasn't very likely or super-important, so decided to move on.
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  #18  
Old 11-24-2019, 12:21 PM
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My January exam-prep seminar for STAM now has sufficient enrollment to be guaranteed to be offered. For information and registration, see my website http://www.actuarialseminars.com .
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  #19  
Old 11-24-2019, 05:13 PM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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Practicing Bayesian Credibility, loosing momentum and motivation, but I definitely need lots of practice even though it has a nice general sequence for solving problems. Hoping to get to 3.3 Buhlman credibility tomorrow and maybe take a few days off for Thanksgiving.
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  #20  
Old 11-24-2019, 06:45 PM
tcnjmathmajor97 tcnjmathmajor97 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whatdoactuariesevendo View Post
Practicing Bayesian Credibility, loosing momentum and motivation, but I definitely need lots of practice even though it has a nice general sequence for solving problems. Hoping to get to 3.3 Buhlman credibility tomorrow and maybe take a few days off for Thanksgiving.
Lol it seems we're on the same schedule. I'm finishing up Bayesian credibility today and moving to Buhlmann tomorrow. I was very confused by Bayesian at first but I agree that the set of steps helps a lot. I will be giving myself a break Thursday and Friday!
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