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  #11  
Old 01-03-2020, 03:36 PM
EatSleepPLO EatSleepPLO is offline
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NormalDan,
Thanks for the advice. Jeez LinkedIn though. Here goes nothing. I guess I might find some people but I really have very few connections in the "real" world. Can I buy you a coffee?
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  #12  
Old 01-03-2020, 03:44 PM
EatSleepPLO EatSleepPLO is offline
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Vorian Atreides,
This might be a bad analogy as I don't even know what an actuary does, but in the poker world even as recently as like 2016 humans were beating the best computers handily. I mean how can a computer know how to bluff it can't even wear sunglasses! But now in 2020 it's game over for the humans.

Last edited by EatSleepPLO; 01-03-2020 at 03:53 PM.. Reason: it's not 2019 lol
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  #13  
Old 01-03-2020, 03:46 PM
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NormalDan NormalDan is offline
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Originally Posted by EatSleepPLO View Post
If a computer program can be proven to be better at interpreting the variance than a human, why wouldn't the non-calculus guy take the computer's word for the answers? I know I should take YOUR word for it but I'm still not getting what the human is needed for..
There's a lot of judgment in things that become more apparent as you get deeper in the field. If you look at the ratemaking source for CAS Exam 5 this is the surface of that sort of thing, but the meaningful judgments will be about taking modelling output combined with other analyses to make judgements on how things will be in the future. It's a similar concept to the first computers making more robust analyses easier to do it means we spend more time doing more nuanced analysis, not that the new computer replaces us.

Before you'd get your state level rate adequacy analysis and be stuck with it. Now we can analyze all sorts of interesting angles/insights, and only more so with the aid of modelling output.

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Originally Posted by EatSleepPLO View Post
NormalDan,
Thanks for the advice. Jeez LinkedIn though. Here goes nothing. I guess I might find some people but I really have very few connections in the "real" world. Can I buy you a coffee?
Haha ideal case is someone not too far removed from you in real life because that can help down the road with networking, plus it's good to actually get out and meet people. The really valuable actuaries are good at talking to people, but feel free to send me a PM if you have any questions.
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  #14  
Old 01-03-2020, 03:53 PM
Dr T Non-Fan Dr T Non-Fan is offline
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Originally Posted by EatSleepPLO View Post
If a computer program can be proven to be better at interpreting the variance than a human, why wouldn't the non-calculus guy take the computer's word for the answers? I know I should take YOUR word for it but I'm still not getting what the human is needed for..
Then, you should stop trying to become an actuary. Your logical conclusion is right in front of you. Not sure why we are even continuing this conversation, except for your admission that you crave personal attention.

So, I'm going to let other posters take over this duty.
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  #15  
Old 01-03-2020, 03:56 PM
EatSleepPLO EatSleepPLO is offline
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I am sorry Dr TNF i will not stop trying. My logical conclusion is that I'm wrong about this ldo. I'm just trying to get someone to ELI5 it to me. And the personal attention.

Last edited by EatSleepPLO; 01-03-2020 at 04:06 PM.. Reason: No disrespect Dr TNF!
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  #16  
Old 01-03-2020, 03:57 PM
Westley Westley is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EatSleepPLO View Post
...
Special thanks to Westley for the stickies.
...
Well, you just made a new friend!


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Originally Posted by EatSleepPLO View Post
DR T I will check that out.
Oops, and an enemy. His name is DTNF. He thinks the "NF" portion is particularly important, since he is not Dr T. In case you were wondering why he got all snarky.


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Originally Posted by EatSleepPLO View Post
...
the earliest I could take the 1st exam is summer 2021.
...
I haven't looked at the exams lately, but find this hard to believe, you should explain why and also have some people here (that are younger than I am) confrm/correct that.


Can I ask what you were doing the last ten years? I assume poker? Or other gambling instead/in addition? Just curious.


Quote:
Originally Posted by EatSleepPLO View Post
This might be a bad analogy as I don't even know what an actuary does, but in the poker world even as recently as like 2016 humans were beating the best computers handily. I mean how can a computer know how to bluff it can't even wear sunglasses! But now in 2019 it's game over for the humans.
There's a pretty good analogy here. As soon as the computers can replace Norman Chad, Mike Sexton, and Mr Kotter at explaining to me what happened in a hand, you'll have an argument for computers replacing actuaries. It will eventually happen, but not this year.

And I didn't know a computer could outplay a human - would be interested in reading more on this if you had a recommendation. So, I assume that all online poker is now dead or imminently will be?
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  #17  
Old 01-03-2020, 04:13 PM
Dr T Non-Fan Dr T Non-Fan is offline
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Oops, and an enemy. His name is DTNF. He thinks the "NF" portion is particularly important, since he is not Dr T. In case you were wondering why he got all snarky.
That's word is a bit harsh. But, I guess being indifferent (which I've decided to be) is even more harsh.
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And I didn't know a computer could outplay a human - would be interested in reading more on this if you had a recommendation. So, I assume that all online poker is now dead or imminently will be?
Limit Hold 'em for sure. And I think there are some experiments on No-Limit as well. Computer has an advantage in that it has no utility curve, and that AI allows it to learn how a player plays.

Here is a recent story:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0711141343.htm
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  #18  
Old 01-03-2020, 04:29 PM
EatSleepPLO EatSleepPLO is offline
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Westley (Hi friend!),

I say Summer 2021 as the earliest date to take exam 1 because that is what the head of the math department at my school told me. He admittedly didn't know that much about actuarial, but he said I have to take math classes 1 at a time. Can't stack Calc 1+2 in the same semester etc.

Yes I played poker full time for most of the past decade. Both online and live. About 3 years ago I got really into daily fantasy sports, which was probably one of several reasons for my downfall in poker ha. Not that I lost money at it, I can beat the rake but not make a living. But it took up so much of my time that my poker suffered. Anyway, even if my poker hourly was still > an actuaries' I'd still want out of professional gambling. It really is the hardest way to make an easy living.

For reading on the poker playing computer, google Carnegie Melon poker computer or something like that. I was predominantly a live player for the latter half of my career, but a few reasons online poker is not dead yet:

-The good computer is really expensive I think. And it randomly takes like 5 minutes to mull over some river decisions lol.
-Sites are getting better at bot detection and implementing one might be tough
-There will always be degens. Poker players love to talk the sky is falling stuff, but I have friends who still crush and make a living. And even if some people used game theory optimal bots, there is still fish money to be taken.
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  #19  
Old 01-03-2020, 04:37 PM
Dr T Non-Fan Dr T Non-Fan is offline
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Call a clock on that bastard!!
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  #20  
Old 01-03-2020, 04:38 PM
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Terror Reid Terror Reid is offline
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pricing expertise
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