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  #141  
Old 10-26-2019, 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by laurier_parc View Post
I always struggle with freq and sev trends questions, there seems to be no logical answers, Can anyone explain fall 2018q5, what to choose for step one trend and step 2 factors? Can I use pp as trend 1 and expo trends for trend 2, that is 1381/1229=trend 1, Then -7% for trend 2? Also what is the "trend to" date for trend 1? Isn't it the midpoint of the latest available period, which is 11/15/2018?(q4 2018)
I think you are confusing with a premium trend, where you would trend from the average written date of the latest period for step 2. Also note that in this case it is year ending quarter, so the midpoint of this period would be 7/1/18.

For this problem, it is clear that frequency and severities are trending at different rates so they need to be analyzed separately. Severity is stable so only needs a one step trend. Frequency has changed, and we know that this change happened on 7/1/17. This would be the "trend to" date for step 1. Select a 7% freq trend for part one based on 16 pt fit. The trend period for part one is 7/1/15 to 7/1/17.

For part two of the freq trend, we judgementally select a trend of 0 or -7% based on the 6 or 4 pt trends. The trend period for this is then 7/1/17 to 4/1/20.
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  #142  
Old 10-27-2019, 03:10 AM
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Originally Posted by ronaldy27 View Post
How's everyone feeling?
I think if i stay focused and not make any silly mistakes, I'd pass.


Been ready for a while, annoyed with this exam. Just reviewing flash cards wondering what crazy questions will see Monday. Maybe they will be normal and I can solve all and get done in 3 hours.


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  #143  
Old 10-27-2019, 02:12 PM
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For people who have taken this exam exactly how big of a time crunch is it actually?
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  #144  
Old 10-27-2019, 03:15 PM
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Originally Posted by ActuarialAlpha View Post
I think you are confusing with a premium trend, where you would trend from the average written date of the latest period for step 2. Also note that in this case it is year ending quarter, so the midpoint of this period would be 7/1/18.

For this problem, it is clear that frequency and severities are trending at different rates so they need to be analyzed separately. Severity is stable so only needs a one step trend. Frequency has changed, and we know that this change happened on 7/1/17. This would be the "trend to" date for step 1. Select a 7% freq trend for part one based on 16 pt fit. The trend period for part one is 7/1/15 to 7/1/17.

For part two of the freq trend, we judgementally select a trend of 0 or -7% based on the 6 or 4 pt trends. The trend period for this is then 7/1/17 to 4/1/20.
How were you able to deduce that freq changed on 7/1/2017? Say if we assume freq of 2% represents change corresponding to 8-pt, that includes data from 4/1/2016/- 12/31/2017. If you were referencing to 0% freq as change, even then 6-pts corresponds to 10/1/2016-till end of 2017?

Thanks bud
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  #145  
Old 10-27-2019, 03:17 PM
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we know , Incurred = Paid + case o/s + IBNR

Does IBNR represents pure IBNR or IBNER+IBNYR here?

btw this refers to Kittel approach in ULAE
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  #146  
Old 10-27-2019, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Sav View Post
we know , Incurred = Paid + case o/s + IBNR

Does IBNR represents pure IBNR or IBNER+IBNYR here?

btw this refers to Kittel approach in ULAE


Assume broad definition of IBNR in the classical and Kittel adjustment problems. Unless there is a bullet showing you pure IBNR is a % of IBNR then only want the 100% load to this and 50% to case and portion on IBNR not pure.


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Last edited by fsumath; 10-27-2019 at 03:29 PM..
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  #147  
Old 10-27-2019, 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by fsumath View Post
Assume broad definition of IBNR in the classical and Kittel adjustment problems. Unless there is a bullet showing you pure IBNR is a % of IBNR then only want the 100% upload to this and 50% to case and portion on IBNR not pure.


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Thanks buddy and i wish you best of luck. Hopefully you can get that monkey of your back.
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  #148  
Old 10-27-2019, 06:36 PM
avitron142 avitron142 is offline
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What happens if someone lost the sheet with their candidate number on it? I can't seem to find an email detailing the same, and we need it for the exam...
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  #149  
Old 10-27-2019, 07:50 PM
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What happens if someone lost the sheet with their candidate number on it? I can't seem to find an email detailing the same, and we need it for the exam...
It should be in your profile on the CAS website somewhere
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  #150  
Old 10-27-2019, 08:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Tsir View Post
It should be in your profile on the CAS website somewhere
I'd think so... but the only thing the website shows is the receipt with the invoice number. Exam 5 isn't listed on the "exam" section yet (since it technically wasn't administered yet).
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