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  #391  
Old 09-15-2019, 03:28 PM
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reference for later

https://www.bls.gov/iif/oshcfoi1.htm

[quote]Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries (CFOI) - Current and Revised Data
[quote]

https://www.bls.gov/iif/soii-data.htm
Quote:
Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses Data
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Old 10-01-2019, 05:04 AM
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https://freebeacon.com/issues/missou...f_WWe37-QFhGn8


Quote:
Missouri Sees Sharp Drop in Life Expectancy
Hawley sounds the alarm on economic roots of deaths of despair
Spoiler:
Life expectancy in Missouri fell by nearly a year between 2012 and 2018 as the region has grappled with an epidemic of opioid, suicide, and alcohol-related deaths, according to a new report.

A report from the Missouri Department of Health found that the state's life expectancy fell in 2018, continuing what Sen. Josh Hawley (R., Mo.) described in a Thursday speech as many years of decline. A Missourian born in 2012 could expect to live about 0.8 years longer than a Missourian born in 2018—a staggering decline, given the overwhelming trend of increases in life expectancy around the world.

This decline reflects national trends, a multi-year life expectancy drop of the sort that occurred at the height of the 1990s AIDS epidemic and the influenza epidemic of the 1960s. According to the Missouri Department of Health, the state's decline is not the result of a graying population, but rather "a reflection of increases in death rates among younger persons for external causes such as drug overdoses, suicides and homicides."



Specifically, young and middle-aged Missourians—ages 25 to 55—have borne the brunt of these increases. Within Missouri as a whole, the state Department of Health said, "from 2008 to 2018, suicides increased by 53.5 percent, accidental deaths by 33.6 percent and homicides by 30.7 percent."

The staggering increases of early mortality, often described as "deaths of despair," have attracted the attention of state and national lawmakers. Hawley said addressing the epidemic must be a top priority.

"This is a struggle we are in together, a struggle that brings us together, a struggle for the things we love together—for home, and family, and country," Hawley said in a speech on Thursday. "And the future of this country will be defined by how we meet this challenge."

The term "deaths of despair" describes not one crisis but several and is often misused, but originally referred to declining life expectancy among low-status white Americans, many of whom live in deindustrializing, midwestern states like Missouri.

In Hawley's view, these deaths reflect an economic malaise driven by the collapse of middle-skill work, which is chewing through much of America's working class.

"These numbers are tragic, but they are more than that," Hawley said. "They are the signs of a crisis. We are witnessing the slow-motion collapse of the working class in America. All Americans suffer from deaths of despair, but we know from the evidence that it is working people and working families who are hit hardest."

This collapse is well-documented. A recent report from the St. Louis Federal Reserve showed how the white working class has steadily shrunk over the past 40 years. Some of that shrinkage is a result of individuals moving into higher status jobs and earning more income. But as some rise, those at the bottom fare worse—as one recent paper noted, "middle-age mortality increases among non-Hispanic whites are driven almost entirely by changes in the bottom 10% of the education distribution."

Hawley emphasized that social decay is not just a challenge for whites, but for all Americans.

"The struggle of working life today … is a struggle shared by white and black alike, and by everybody of every race," he said. "The breakdown of family and neighborhood, the loss of good work and the epidemic of addictive drugs—these things know no racial boundaries."

Hawley connected this breakdown to concrete policy decisions on trade, immigration, and finance made over the past few decades. U.S. trade liberalization, in particular, appears to have disproportionately harmed low-skill American workers who have seen their jobs offshored as the American manufacturing sector has collapsed. This collapse has been directly connected to the rise of "deaths of despair." Hawley said the rise in early death among the working class can only be addressed if lawmakers address the root cause of regional economic decline.

"The working people of this country, their future and their families that are going to define the future of our country," Hawley concluded. "That is what we should be debating … because this is what is going to define our time."


Spoiler:



awful color choice on the graph there
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  #393  
Old 10-23-2019, 10:52 AM
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https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2019/10...20190923102854

Comparisons of future life time for 65 YO from various data sets.
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  #394  
Old 10-23-2019, 11:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Actuary321 View Post
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2019/10...20190923102854

Comparisons of future life time for 65 YO from various data sets.
dear lord. The visuals.

Anyway, the numbers come from this:
https://www.soa.org/globalassets/ass...expectancy.pdf

They are reporting the gender-blended, result, sometimes blended, sometimes not

The highest life expectancies is for female public school teachers (I didn't check if already retired, but I would assume so at age 65).

Interesting the group life coverage has fairly high life expectancies, but I suppose that's based on still actively working at age 65.
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  #395  
Old 11-01-2019, 10:04 AM
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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/life-ex...m_medium=email

Quote:
Life expectancy for American men drops for a third year

Life expectancy for U.S. men slipped for a third straight year, according to new data from the National Center for Health Statistics.
The average male lifespan stood at 76.1 years in 2017, a four-month decline since 2014.
Drug overdose rates for men are almost twice as high as a decade ago.

Spoiler:
Life expectancy for American men dropped for a third consecutive year, with the National Center for Health Statistics citing an increase in so-called "deaths of despair," such as the rise in drug overdose deaths.

The average lifespan of men in the U.S. dipped to 76.1 years in 2017 (the latest data available), amounting to a four-month decline in life expectancy since 2014. The findings shed additional light on economic research into the sharp increase in recent years in deaths from overdoses and suicides among white men with less education.


NCHS

@NCHStats
In 2017, the life expectancy at birth for males was 76.1 years. Life expectancy at birth for males has decreased each year since 2014. For more data on life expectancy #HealthUS #lifeexpectancy https://go.usa.gov/xpCzT

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Princeton economists Anne Case and Nobel laureate Angus Deaton first highlighted the issue in 2015 with their research on how white, less-educated Americans had veered off track. In 1999, the mortality rate for this demographic was about 30% lower than those of African-Americans. But by 2015, their mortality rate had eclipsed that of blacks by 30%, the economists found. The reason? A spike in death rates due to alcohol and drug poisoning, suicide, and alcoholic liver disease and cirrhosis.

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The new data from the National Center for Health Statistics underline the scale of the problem. Drug overdose deaths for males over age 15 has almost doubled over the last decade, the agency found, rising to 29.1 deaths per 100,000 men in 2017, from 14.9 deaths per 100,000 in 2007.

"The recent increases were especially pronounced among men aged 25–34 and 35–44," the NCHS report noted. "From 2013 to 2017, the drug overdose death rate increased by an average of 18.5% per year among men aged 25–34 and by an average of 18.8% per year among men aged 35–44."

America is an outlier
Unlike other industrialized countries, the U.S. is seeing a plateau or decline in life expectancy, making it an outlier since higher health expenditures are typically tied with longer lives. One theory attributes that to different health outcomes for rich and poor households, an issue that has been exacerbated by rising income inequality in the U.S.

Wealthier Americans are more likely to live into their 70s and 80s than people in the middle class and the poor, according to a September report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office. In other words, being poor can be hazardous to your health.

And that can lead to significantly different life expectancies, according to a recent Harvard analysis of 15 years' worth of IRS data. Men who are among the richest 1% of Americans live almost 15 years longer than those who are in the poorest 1%, the Harvard analysis found. The gap was about 10 years for the richest versus poorest women.


Poor Americans are more likely to skip or delay health care treatment because of cost, the NCHS study said. It's an issue that impacts about 1 in 6 Americans who live at or below the poverty line, the study found.

Young women are also experiencing a sharp uptick in drug overdoses, although the rate remains lower than that seen among men, the NCHS noted. The drug overdose death rate for women over age 15 jumped 64% from 2007 to 2017, hitting 14.4 deaths per 100,000 women, it added.

Life expectancy for women, black and Latino residents has held steady since 2014, the agency said.


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  #396  
Old 11-01-2019, 03:53 PM
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Is anybody adjusting mortality projections in pricing or reserves?
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  #397  
Old 11-01-2019, 05:05 PM
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https://www.swissre.com/reinsurance/...sk-trends.html

https://www.swissre.com/reinsurance/...addiction.html

https://www.swissre.com/dam/jcr:ca21...-misuse-us.pdf

Quote:
Inadequate underwriting of opioid users at time of application and/or deteriorating claims experience will inevitably result in increases to base premium rates.
.....
Our experience shows: Opioid claims are higher than other causes in the early
years of a life insurance policy
.....
At Swiss Re, we continue to analyse portfolios for potential adverse claims that are the result
of opioid misuse and addiction. At this time we are basing this analysis on fully underwritten
experience
, and it is not clear whether moving toward automated or simplified underwriting
will increase exposure to opioid related deaths and disability.
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  #398  
Old 11-08-2019, 06:15 AM
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https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/8374m
Quote:
The rising marriage mortality gap among Whites

Abstract Although the decline in marriage has been cited as a possible contributor to the “despair” afflicting marginalized White communities, these studies have not directly considered mortality by marital status. This paper uses complete death certificate data from the Mortality Multiple Cause Files with American Community Survey data to examine age-specific mortality rates for married and non-married people from 2007 to 2017. The overall rise in White mortality is limited almost exclusively to those who are not married, for men and women. By comparison, mortality for Blacks and Hispanics has fallen or remained flat regardless of marital status (except for young, single Hispanic men). Analysis by education level shows death rates have risen most for Whites with the lowest education, but have also increased for those with high school or some college. Because mortality has risen faster for unmarried Whites at all but the lowest education levels, there has been an increase in the marriage mortality ratio. Mortality differentials are an increasingly important component of the social hierarchy associated with marital status.
https://pjmedia.com/lifestyle/study-...3dXuIOxC1XMcZM
Quote:
Study: Dramatic Rise in White Mortality Disproportionately Affects Single Men
Spoiler:
Deaths of despair have claimed an increasing number of white people in the past decade. Opioid addictions, suicide, and deaths from drug and alcohol abuse have ticked up across America — and a new study found that single people are at far greater risk in this tragic societal trend.

"The overall rise in White mortality is limited almost exclusively to those who are not married, for men and women. By comparison, mortality for Blacks and Hispanics has fallen or remained flat regardless of marital status (except for young, single Hispanic men)," Philip N. Cohen, professor of sociology at the University of Maryland, College Park, reported in his new study, "The rising marriage mortality gap among Whites."

Less-educated whites are more likely to die in this deaths of despair epidemic, but "because mortality has risen faster for unmarried Whites at all but the lowest education levels, there has been an increase in the marriage mortality ratio."

Cohen analyzed death rates for married and single whites between the years of 2007 and 2017. He found that "the recent White mortality increase is disproportionately experienced by whose who are not married as well as those who have less than a [Bachelor of Arts] degree."

"The ratio of single to married death rates increased for Whites of all ages over the decade, with dramatic increases under age 40. At the most extreme, for the age range 30-34, the ratio increased from 3.0 to 3.9 for White men, and from 2.5 to 3.5 for White women," he reported. "The marriage mortality gap is higher for men than for women in all groups. This implies that either the protective effects of marriage, or the selection pressures into marriage, are stronger for men than for women. The Hispanic and Black marriage mortality ratios are lower than they are for Whites."

Study: Divorce Rates Plummet in Florida City Thanks to Christian Family Initiative
"It appears the overall White marriage mortality ratio is driven both by increasing death rates for everyone at the lowest levels of education, and by increasing marriage disparities at higher levels of education," Cohen explained.

"During the period when premature White mortality jumped upward, which has been associated with the opioid epidemic, as well as alcohol-related deaths and suicide, the increases were markedly greater for those who were single, especially for those under age 40," according to his report. "Among 30-34 year olds, single White men are now 3.9-times more likely to die than those who are married, and the ratio is 3.5-to-1 for Women."

"Some of this increase may be because single people are increasingly concentrated at lower levels of education, where mortality rates are much higher. But even among those with more than a high school education, single White mortality rates rose, and the ratio of single to married mortality rates increased," Cohen wrote.

The psychology professor warned that the "mortality differentials are an increasingly important component of the social hierarchy associated with marital status."

In other words, married people are statistically more likely to be more educated, to make more money, and to live longer.

"This paper shows that the recent White mortality increase is disproportionately experienced by those who are not married as well as those who have less than a BA degree," Cohen wrote. "Marriage is increasingly a feature of privileged life in the United States, and mortality is an important component of that pattern."

"The growing mortality gap between married and single Whites is a social fact. If single people are increasingly more likely to die than married people, that implies a growing marital status social hierarchy," the sociologist added, echoing some of the points in his book The Family: Diversity, Inequality, and Social Change.

In sharing the study on Twitter, Cohen argued that "more marriage" would not necessarily "solve the problem." He claimed that if the government were to promote marriage, there is "no reason to suspect the extra marriages gained (if any) would be the ones that bring the protective benefits observed among existing marriages."


Philip N Cohen

@familyunequal
Nov 1, 2019
Replying to @familyunequal
What does it mean? To be determined. But it's important to know that the rise in premature White mortality, which is basically historically unprecedented, is almost all about unmarried people.


Philip N Cohen

@familyunequal
Policy sidenote: Does this mean more marriage would solve the problem, so the government should promote marriage? Unlikely. No reason to suspect the extra marriages gained (if any) would be the ones that bring the protective benefits observed among existing marriages.

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Whether or not the government should promote marriage, this study suggests a stronger culture of marriage could save lives.

Marriage and family give people more purpose in life, and that seems especially important for young men. A lifelong romantic relationship not only satisfies physical desires but provides men and women with a reliable partner to share their joys and sorrows, victories and defeats. This kind of relationship helps men live wiser and avoid the kind of risks that lead to premature death.

Naturally, not everyone can get married. St. Paul wrote that he preferred Christians to remain single so they could be fully dedicated to serving God (1 Corinthians 7:7). This increase in deaths among white singles came at a time of declining religious belief and practice among white people, and singleness is less associated with celibacy in modern America.

Holocaust survivor Victor Frankl wrote the powerful book Man's Search for Meaning, explaining that those who had a purpose to live were more likely to survive the death camps. Modern America is nothing like the Holocaust, of course, but the key lesson of his book may help explain this marriage mortality differential. Married people are less likely to die young because they have someone to live for.


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  #399  
Old 11-24-2019, 02:34 PM
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more about morbidity than mortality, but what the hey
https://www.bcbs.com/sites/default/f...nial-10-30.pdf

Quote:
The Economic Consequences of
Millennial Health

1. Key Findings
In the course of the last several years, millennials have shown that they are very different from previous generations
in a number of ways. Defined as the generation born from 1981 to 1996, they are the largest, most educated, and
most connected generation the world has ever seen4. However, recent data also show the beginnings of troubling
generational health patterns that could hamper the future prosperity of millennials, and in turn the prosperity of the
U.S. If the current pace of decline in millennial health continues unabated, the long-term consequences to the U.S.
economy could be severe.
Millennials now make up the largest share of the U.S. population and labor force, placing them at the heart of U.S.
economic growth as consumers, workers, and business owners. How their health plays out in the years ahead will
determine not only the overall health of the country, but also its potential economic trajectory. By using Blue Cross
Blue Shield Health Index data to analyze these questions, we are able to take a much broader and forward-looking
view of these impacts relative to previous studies. In our examination of millennial health patterns we have found
several interesting and concerning findings, particularly regarding future impacts on healthcare costs and economic
activity.
1. Millennials are seeing their health decline faster than the previous generation as they age. This extends to
both physical health conditions, such as hypertension and high cholesterol, and behavioral health
conditions, such as major depression and hyperactivity. Without intervention, millennials could feasibly see
mortality rates climb more than 40% compared to Gen-Xers at the same age.
2. These accelerated declines will result in greater demand for treatment and higher healthcare costs in the
years ahead. Under the most adverse scenario, millennial treatment costs are projected to be as much as
33% higher than Gen-Xers experienced at a comparable age.
3. Poorer health among millennials will keep them from contributing as much to the economy as they otherwise
would, manifesting itself through higher unemployment and slower income growth. Under the most adverse
set of projections, lower levels of health alone could cost millennials more than $4,500 per year in real percapita incomes compared to similarly aged Gen-Xers. Such impacts would be most likely concentrated in
areas already struggling economically, potentially exacerbating instances of income inequality and
contributing to a vicious cycle of even greater prevalence of behavioral health conditions.
These findings should serve as a call to action among policymakers and the healthcare community at large to
address declining health among younger Americans before the more severe consequences in this analysis become
reality. If nothing is done, the impacts could be game changing for the U.S. and its economy.
a post on the report (by Moody's, via BCBS)
https://www.bcbs.com/the-health-of-a...ct-our-economy

I'm pulling the graphics from the post:



yay for Gen X!
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:12 PM
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN1Y02C7
Quote:
U.S. life expectancy declining due to more deaths in middle age

Spoiler:
(Reuters Health) - After rising for decades, life expectancy in the U.S. decreased for three straight years, driven by higher rates of death among middle aged Americans, a new study suggests.

Midlife all-cause mortality rates were increasing between 2010 and 2017, driven by higher numbers of deaths due to drug overdoses, alcohol abuse, suicides and organ system diseases, such as hypertension and diabetes, according to the report published in JAMA.

“There has been an increase in death rates among working age Americans,” said Dr. Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University. “This is an emergent crisis. And it is a uniquely American problem since it is not seen in other countries. Something about life in America is responsible.”

The rising rates of midlife mortality hit some regions of the country harder than others, Woolf and his coauthor found. Increases were highest in northern New England and the Ohio Valley.

Economic hardship and the resulting despair may be to blame in those regions, Woolf suggested. “While it’s a little difficult to place the blame on despair directly, the living conditions causing despair are leading to other problems,” he explained. “For example if you live in an economically distressed community where income is flat and it’s hard to find jobs, that can lead to chronic stress, which is harmful to health.”

Noting that a pattern of increasing mortality in middle age is not seen in other high income countries, Woolf said this might be because “in other countries there are more support systems for people who fall on hard times. In America, families are left to their own devices to try to get by.”

Data for the study came from the National Center for Health Statistics and the U.S. Mortality Database for 1959 to 2017. The researchers also scoured the medical literature for studies of U.S. life expectancy and mortality trends.

Based on the data, life expectancy had increased by almost 10 years over the course of nearly 6 decades - from 69.9 years to 78.9 years - but had been declining since 2014. And the overall decline was explained by increased mortality among the middle aged.

Death rates among the middle aged weren’t uniform across the country. The largest relative increases in midlife mortality rates occurred in New Hampshire, 23.3%, West Virginia, 23.0%, Ohio, 21.6%, Maine, 20.7%, Vermont, 19.9%, Indiana, 14,8% and Kentucky, 14.7%. Life expectancy actually increased or plateaued in some Western states, the researchers reported.

“The current problems we are seeing are decades in the making,” Woolf said. “We used to have the highest life expectancy in the world. The pace at which life expectancy was increasing in the U.S. started to fall off relative to other countries in the 80s.”

The new findings highlight some distressing trends, said Dr. John Rowe, a professor in Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health in New York City.

“It is depressing,” Rowe said, “but I don’t think it’s much of a surprise. We knew the opioid epidemic was taking a major toll with 250,000 who have overdosed and died.”

What’s striking is that the decline in life expectancy isn’t the same for all age groups. “This is really evidence that mortality rates are increasing only in middle age while they’re continuing to decline in children, adolescents and people over 65,” Rowe said, noting that it’s occurring as mortality rates from cancer and stroke are declining.

Part of the problem may be that middle aged people are getting squeezed by health care costs because they are less likely to have coverage than children and people over 65. In fact, another recent study found out-of-pocket costs were more likely to prompt middle aged people to cut back on heart disease medications than people over 65.

SOURCE: bit.ly/2pX1VfU JAMA, online November 26, 2019.


https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...stract/2756187
Quote:
Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates in the United States, 1959-2017

Spoiler:
Abstract
Importance US life expectancy has not kept pace with that of other wealthy countries and is now decreasing.

Objective To examine vital statistics and review the history of changes in US life expectancy and increasing mortality rates; and to identify potential contributing factors, drawing insights from current literature and an analysis of state-level trends.

Evidence Life expectancy data for 1959-2016 and cause-specific mortality rates for 1999-2017 were obtained from the US Mortality Database and CDC WONDER, respectively. The analysis focused on midlife deaths (ages 25-64 years), stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography (including the 50 states). Published research from January 1990 through August 2019 that examined relevant mortality trends and potential contributory factors was examined.

Findings Between 1959 and 2016, US life expectancy increased from 69.9 years to 78.9 years but declined for 3 consecutive years after 2014. The recent decrease in US life expectancy culminated a period of increasing cause-specific mortality among adults aged 25 to 64 years that began in the 1990s, ultimately producing an increase in all-cause mortality that began in 2010. During 2010-2017, midlife all-cause mortality rates increased from 328.5 deaths/100 000 to 348.2 deaths/100 000. By 2014, midlife mortality was increasing across all racial groups, caused by drug overdoses, alcohol abuse, suicides, and a diverse list of organ system diseases. The largest relative increases in midlife mortality rates occurred in New England (New Hampshire, 23.3%; Maine, 20.7%; Vermont, 19.9%) and the Ohio Valley (West Virginia, 23.0%; Ohio, 21.6%; Indiana, 14.8%; Kentucky, 14.7%). The increase in midlife mortality during 2010-2017 was associated with an estimated 33 307 excess US deaths, 32.8% of which occurred in 4 Ohio Valley states.

Conclusions and Relevance US life expectancy increased for most of the past 60 years, but the rate of increase slowed over time and life expectancy decreased after 2014. A major contributor has been an increase in mortality from specific causes (eg, drug overdoses, suicides, organ system diseases) among young and middle-aged adults of all racial groups, with an onset as early as the 1990s and with the largest relative increases occurring in the Ohio Valley and New England. The implications for public health and the economy are substantial, making it vital to understand the underlying causes.


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