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  #1791  
Old 08-24-2019, 08:28 PM
ActuarialFun ActuarialFun is offline
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Based on Friday's events as well as Trump's announcement after the markets closed about further tariffs, I'm so excited to see what Monday's stock market holds that this might be the first weekend in a long time I'm wanting to end early! It's getting exciting
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  #1792  
Old 08-26-2019, 09:31 AM
MathGeek92 MathGeek92 is offline
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sell the pop
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  #1793  
Old 08-26-2019, 03:15 PM
citigroup citigroup is offline
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Originally Posted by MathGeek92 View Post
sell the pop
easier to just buy quality and wait in this era of algos. Just buy Berkshire, wont go down as much, still have potential upside and if things go awry hes got 130+billion in cash for deals, buybacks, stocks.

For those that want a bit more risk
using my stock picker hat:
I still think Morgan Stanley is way undervalued (not as much interest rate exposure), and the airlines earnings are going to be a no-brainer beat (those with no max issues or little exposure)

Of course keep some cash.

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Look at this generation, with all of its electronic devices and multitasking. I will confidently predict less success than Warren, who just focused on reading. If you want wisdom, you'll get it sitting on your ass. That's the way it comes.
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  #1794  
Old 08-27-2019, 11:10 AM
MathGeek92 MathGeek92 is offline
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easier to just buy quality

Easier than what? The trump tweet bump will not last. sellers have control of the market right now and the big boys get back at it starting next week. Low volume rallies, between hard sell offs are ripe for a swoon downwards.

What "quality" names are you buying.

I'm short the market through SPY puts. Should have closed and reloaded after Friday's swoon. I expect much more volatility ahead. China is much more patient and will withstand much more pain than our president.

Thats going to be bad for markets

P.S. A super wise trader once told me.. Follow the bond markets, the equity market will follow.

Last edited by MathGeek92; 08-27-2019 at 11:24 AM..
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  #1795  
Old 08-27-2019, 11:41 AM
d123454321 d123454321 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathGeek92 View Post
Easier than what? The trump tweet bump will not last. sellers have control of the market right now and the big boys get back at it starting next week. Low volume rallies, between hard sell offs are ripe for a swoon downwards.

What "quality" names are you buying.

I'm short the market through SPY puts. Should have closed and reloaded after Friday's swoon. I expect much more volatility ahead. China is much more patient and will withstand much more pain than our president.

Thats going to be bad for markets

P.S. A super wise trader once told me.. Follow the bond markets, the equity market will follow.
What bond market? Because last 2 times treasurys had a big peak in july 2012 and July 2016 it was a great low for stocks. If anything bones gave inverse signals.

Low long term rates is very stimulative to the economy and markets if anything.

If you meant riskier bonds, well high yield spreads haven't much up much on thus pullback...

Last edited by d123454321; 08-27-2019 at 11:42 AM.. Reason: Punctuation
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  #1796  
Old 08-27-2019, 11:50 AM
MathGeek92 MathGeek92 is offline
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I think you just made my point? Rates were high because traders were rotating in the undervalued equities. Equities are overvalued by many measures. World economy is slowing DRAMATICALLY. Small caps lead the way lower because people are "hiding" in large caps. Germany is on the brink of recession. All sign point to a major global slowdown, which is very bad for equities. Bonds are there first.

Of course I'll be the first to admit my thesis can be wrong. Only time will tell.
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  #1797  
Old 08-27-2019, 01:02 PM
d123454321 d123454321 is offline
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Originally Posted by MathGeek92 View Post
I think you just made my point? Rates were high because traders were rotating in the undervalued equities. Equities are overvalued by many measures. World economy is slowing DRAMATICALLY. Small caps lead the way lower because people are "hiding" in large caps. Germany is on the brink of recession. All sign point to a major global slowdown, which is very bad for equities. Bonds are there first.

Of course I'll be the first to admit my thesis can be wrong. Only time will tell.
You're making the case that bonds are leading indicator for stocks? It didn't hold in 2012 and 2016 since when bond prices peaked and yields bottomed stocks were ripe to explode higher.

Now yields are near the low in 2012 and 2016 and yet you're looking for serious downside for stocks? Historically this cycle falling yields were bullish forward indicator for stocks.

The global slowdown is underway and began late 2018 yet the bond market seems very slow to price that in with bonds rallying so much after it started . Seems like Bond prices are more of a coincident indicator for economy than leading.
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  #1798  
Old 09-09-2019, 06:36 PM
citigroup citigroup is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathGeek92 View Post
Easier than what? The trump tweet bump will not last. sellers have control of the market right now and the big boys get back at it starting next week. Low volume rallies, between hard sell offs are ripe for a swoon downwards.

What "quality" names are you buying.

I'm short the market through SPY puts. Should have closed and reloaded after Friday's swoon. I expect much more volatility ahead. China is much more patient and will withstand much more pain than our president.

Thats going to be bad for markets

P.S. A super wise trader once told me.. Follow the bond markets, the equity market will follow.
yes, and a super smart investor told me no matter how much you know about finance, the big players know that much or more, and are always in a position to pull the plug on you by temporarily reversing any trend or tampering with any mechanism on which you may be relying.

Most inefficiencies are found in small cap which would require looking though a needle in a haystack, pouring over 10Ks to find super volatile , thinly traded stocks below fair value. But sometimes the shorts win and irrationality can last longer than your solvency.

But I also think ETFs and passive investing are creating inefficiencies in large cap from headlines like its 2008 all over again (get out of all bank stocks even though some are more reliant on fees and not NII) or the Max issues and capacity killing all airlines (even though Delta has none) or steelmageddon is coming so all steel stocks drop 60%, even the iron ore miners. Outside of these simpleton ideas I keep some cash in case your thesis comes true. Good luck.
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  #1799  
Old 09-20-2019, 09:07 AM
MathGeek92 MathGeek92 is offline
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Good luck trading folks. Last work day today. I won't be back.

Have a great life and remember to enjoy life along the way. Saving / Hoarding for retirement and not enjoying life can lead to lots of missed opportunities and regret later in life. Conditions change, health changes, etc.

My best to all of you.

later
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  #1800  
Old 09-20-2019, 09:14 AM
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The_Polymath The_Polymath is offline
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Good luck trading folks. Last work day today. I won't be back.

Have a great life and remember to enjoy life along the way. Saving / Hoarding for retirement and not enjoying life can lead to lots of missed opportunities and regret later in life. Conditions change, health changes, etc.

My best to all of you.

later
I always tell people here this.

But they are just too paranoid/risk averse
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