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  #5441  
Old 04-09-2020, 11:23 AM
Knoath Knoath is offline
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Some ****ers smashed the front door to my brother's restaurant last night to steal a door dash tablet worth $25. Nothing else was taken. That's kicking someone when they are down.
Was it someone from GrubHub?
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  #5442  
Old 04-09-2020, 11:25 AM
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https://www.kaggle.com/covid19

https://www.kaggle.com/covid-19-contributions

Global forecasting contest:
https://www.kaggle.com/c/covid19-glo...stingwk4-email
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Last edited by campbell; 04-09-2020 at 11:28 AM..
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  #5443  
Old 04-09-2020, 11:27 AM
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I read the links and thought, Kaggle exercises help with COVID-19? Well, ok then."
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  #5444  
Old 04-09-2020, 11:45 AM
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Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show

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Dr. Heguy and her colleagues found some New York viruses that shared unique mutations not found elsewhere. “That’s when you know you’ve had a silent transmission for a while,” she said.

Dr. Heguy estimated that the virus began circulating in the New York area a couple of months ago.


And researchers at Mount Sinai started sequencing the genomes of patients coming through their hospital. They found that the earliest cases identified in New York were not linked to later ones.

“Two weeks later, we start seeing viruses related to each other,” said Ana Silvia Gonzalez-Reiche, a member of the Mount Sinai team.

Dr. Gonzalez-Reiche and her colleagues found that these viruses were practically identical to viruses found around Europe. They cannot say on what particular flight a particular virus arrived in New York. But they write that the viruses reveal “a period of untracked global transmission between late January to mid-February.”

So far, the Mount Sinai researchers have identified seven separate lineages of viruses that entered New York and began circulating. “We will probably find more,” Dr. van Bakel said.

The coronavirus genomes are also revealing hints of early cross-country travel.

Dr. van Bakel and his colleagues found one New York virus that was identical to one of the Washington viruses found by Dr. Bedford and his colleagues. In a separate study, researchers at Yale found another Washington-related virus. Combined, the two studies hint that the coronavirus has been moving from coast to coast for several weeks.


Spoiler:
Sidney Bell, a computational biologist working with the Nextstrain team, cautions people not to read too much into these new mutations themselves.

“Just because something is different doesn’t mean it matters,” Dr. Bell said.
Mutations do not automatically turn viruses into new, fearsome strains. They often don’t bring about any change at all. “To me, mutations are inevitable and kind of boring,” Dr. Bell said. “But in the movies, you get the X-Men.”

Peter Thielen, a molecular biologist at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, likes to think of the spread of viruses like a dandelion seed landing on an empty field.

The flower grows up and produces seeds of its own. Those seeds spread and sprout. New mutations arise over the generations as the dandelions fill the field. “But they’re all still dandelions,” Mr. Thielen said.

While the coronavirus mutations are useful for telling lineages apart, they don’t have any apparent effect on how the virus works.

That’s good news for scientists working on a vaccine.


Vaccine developers hope to fight Covid-19 by teaching our bodies to make antibodies that can grab onto the virus and block its entry into cells.

Some viruses evolve so quickly that they require vaccines that can produce several different antibodies. That’s not the case for Covid-19. Like other coronaviruses, it has a relatively slow mutation rate compared to some viruses, like influenza.
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  #5445  
Old 04-09-2020, 11:47 AM
3rookie 3rookie is offline
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Thanks for reading. I guess I should have said that it probably wouldn't really work in Manhattan, which doesn't really have supermarkets (no, Whole Foods and Trader Joes are not supermarkets).

Anywhere other than Manhattan, then. Obviously where someone can transport home two weeks worth of groceries.
Good thoughts. Keep the ideas coming everyone!
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  #5446  
Old 04-09-2020, 11:56 AM
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Some great background information from Cuomo's debrief today. I really hope NYers are watching this rather than the media recap:

Bed Capacity: We have 90,000 beds at this moment after all the work that's been put in to expand; Currently using ~18,000 beds and hopefully this trend continues because we're projected to be much less than ~55,000 (McKinsey moderate scenario) if it does
Spoiler:
Name:  NY Beds.jpg
Views: 286
Size:  28.8 KB


Hospitalizations: On 3/25 to 4/3, we had 1000 - 1400 net hospitalizations each day (I interpret this as current# of hospitalizations at end of day
minus current # of hospitalizations at beginning of the day, so inherently including discharges and deaths). In the 5 days since then, we've had 200-650 net hospitalizations each day.
Spoiler:
Name:  hospitals.jpg
Views: 285
Size:  23.7 KB


Same concept for ICUs.

Spoiler:
Name:  ICUs.jpg
Views: 277
Size:  23.1 KB


This gives me comfort that the adherence displayed ~2 weeks ago are showing benefits. However, the adherence displayed over the last 14 days must be the same.... Cuomo's really stressing this, which is good.


Edited my hospitalization formula above to no longer doublecount discharges and deaths
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Physical violence as acceptable reaction or outdated masculine bravado as a positive quality is definitely not something the country should be moving towards or qualities we want to see in a President.




Last edited by ShivamS; 04-09-2020 at 01:35 PM..
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  #5447  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShivamS View Post
Some great background information from Cuomo's debrief today. I really hope NYers are watching this rather than the media recap:

Bed Capacity: We have 90,000 beds at this moment after all the work that's been put in to expand; Currently using ~18,000 beds and hopefully this trend continues because we're projected to be much less than ~55,000 (McKinsey moderate scenario) if it does
Spoiler:


Hospitalizations: On 3/25 to 4/3, we had 1000 - 1400 net hospitalizations each day (I interpret this as # of hospitalizations at end of day
minus # of hospitalizations at beginning of the day minus discharge minus deaths). In the 5 days since then, we've had 200-650 net hospitalizations each day.
Spoiler:


Same concept for ICUs.

Spoiler:


This gives me comfort that the adherence displayed ~2 weeks ago are showing benefits. However, the adherence displayed over the last 14 days must be the same.... Cuomo's really stressing this, which is good.
haven't watched Cuomo yet today. I tend to watch him right before I go to bed. I watch his press conference every single day. he's basically my only source of information on the virus these days and all I care about in terms of news. his words are the words of my god right now.

also to brock who disbelieved my claiming that the curve was flattening based on the first day of better results. The trend continues! I was right and he was wrong!
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  #5448  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:06 PM
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Arthur Itas Arthur Itas is offline
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I was also skeptical earlier of NYC turning the corner. It does look like things are trending significantly better there.
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  #5449  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:08 PM
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I was also skeptical earlier of NYC turning the corner. It does look like things are trending significantly better there.
yeah, the only problem is, we are all locked in our homes. this isn't natural. we need to figure out a way to be able to get out at some point.

it's great to see that our efforts are working though!
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  #5450  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:11 PM
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the thing about Cuomo throughout this is he does not give false hope. He sticks to the facts, so when even on the first day of better results, he seemed to have a more positive view, I believed that positive view.
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