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  #5451  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Incredible Hulctuary View Post
Hydroxychloroquine.
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  #5452  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Incredible Hulctuary View Post
And is encoded by the IL6 gene. Some version of this is much more likely to have issues COVID.
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  #5453  
Old 04-09-2020, 12:54 PM
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The CDC has removed the anecdotal info on hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine from their page

https://twitter.com/elilee_/status/1...779261953?s=20
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  #5454  
Old 04-09-2020, 01:19 PM
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-e...ns-11586356776

Quote:
First European Countries Prepare to Ease Coronavirus Lockdown Restrictions
Countries such as Austria and Denmark have begun to dial back their social-distancing measures

Spoiler:
Europe is getting ready to reopen, slowly.

Italy, Austria and Denmark are among the first countries to plot the gradual unwinding of their lockdowns against the coronavirus epidemic. Their experiences will show the path ahead for hundreds of millions of other Europeans living under social-distancing restrictions.

The U.S. government is also starting to consider how it will relax its social-distancing guidelines, which run through April. Anthony Fauci, pandemic adviser to President Trump, has said it will be a gradual process there, too.

The unwinding of restrictions will be gradual, with factories resuming production well before restaurants and bars resume service or people can gather at public events.

After suppressing the pandemic's first, big wave, the next phase will be about managing a continuing but, countries hope, much lower level of contagion. Government plans involve ample use of face masks, large-scale testing, cellphone apps to help contain transmission and hospitals dedicated to treating the infected.

Italy, which has been fighting the coronavirus since late February and has Europe's strictest social-distancing measures in place, will be among the first to test the terrain of life after lockdown.

Some factories that were forced to close are expected to get a green light in the coming days to start up next week, according to scientific advisers to the Rome government.

But Italy's reopening will involve many steps. It could be at least another month before residents are allowed to freely leave their homes. And even then, many restrictions will continue. The government is still working on the details.

"Phase two is a necessary phase in which we will have to learn to coexist with the virus, because the virus won't disappear," said Roberto Speranza, Italy's health minister. "We have to rethink how we will organize our social life, our manufacturing and our public health-care system in such a way that allows us to completely exit the lockdown. It will be very gradual."

On Monday, Austria became the first European country to announce a detailed road map for lifting the lockdown. Restrictions will loosen from April 14, when shops below a certain size will be allowed to reopen.

The Czech Republic, which also acted early and aggressively against the outbreak, said it would start reopening some shops on Thursday.

Denmark said it would start reopening businesses after Easter. "This will probably be a bit like walking the tightrope . . . we must take one cautious step at a time," said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

Norway said it would gradually relax its restrictions starting on April 20. "Together we have taken control of the virus and so we can open up society little by little," Prime Minister Erna Solberg told reporters on Tuesday.

The news from Austria and other countries puts pressure on other European leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, to provide a road map for lifting the restrictions on their economies.

Ms. Merkel told a press conference on Monday that Germany wasn't yet ready for relaxing the measures. But German officials and economists have been publicly discussing how and when to restart the economy.

Avoiding a second wave of mass infections is a major concern across Europe.

Italy is planning to further boost testing capabilities and increase medical staff, testing those who show even mild symptoms and isolating them if needed. It also plans to use mobile-phone apps to identify the close contacts of those who test positive and connect them with local health-care authorities.

Some virologists are advocating widespread antibody testing to identify asymptomatic people and make it easier for companies to reopen, an option that Italy's government is considering.

"We must always remember that regardless of the decline in the number of new cases, this virus will remain among the population," said Giovanni Rezza, the chief epidemiologist at Italy's National Health Institute. "We need to engage in a long fight. This is just a first battle that we are confronting with a degree of success."



https://www.wsj.com/articles/austria...ek-11586386670
Quote:
Austria Will Start to Reopen Next Week
Smaller stores return April 14, larger ones May 1. Restaurants and hotels will wait until mid-May.

Spoiler:
Vienna -- Austria, locked down since March 16, may soon become the first Western country to attempt to reopen its economy since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. According to data from Johns Hopkins University, there have been about 13,000 cases to date in Austria, with 273 deaths. Some 4,500 Austrians have recovered from the virus.

The government plans to lift restrictions because infection rates have decreased. On April 6, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz proposed a plan that envisions "step-by-step reopening" in coming weeks, plus a few additional restrictions. Face masks must now be worn in grocery stores and, beginning Easter Monday, on public transport.

Hardware and gardening stores, stores of fewer than 4,306 square feet (400 square meters) and Vienna's parks will reopen April 14. Customers are required to wear face masks and stay far apart from each other. Shopkeepers must limit the number of people inside.

On May 2, all other stores, including malls and hair salons, are set to reopen. Restaurants and hotels will have to wait until mid-May. The same holds for schools. Homeschooling will continue for another month, but graduation exams are expected to take place on schedule.

It isn't clear what will happen with movie theaters, public swimming pools, churches and sports facilities. Large gatherings are prohibited until the end of June. The government expects Austrians will be able to travel domestically this summer, but there are to be no summer vacations abroad. At one point voices in government suggested that travel to and from Austria would only be allowed once the country has been vaccinated. That could take 12 to 18 months.

Mr. Kurz also announced on April 6 that preliminary results from testing a random sample of Austrians suggest that only 1% of the population has been infected by the virus. "All ideas of 'herd immunity' have been clearly refuted by this sample," Mr. Kurz said. That leaves the government pursuing a "containment" strategy, which requires tight border controls.

If the infection curve is flattened, and if the first easing of rules doesn't result in a renewed outbreak, then Austria should speed up reopening to ease the economic pain. We need a healthy economy with functioning supply chains to provide for those in need.

Graphs depicting exponential growth are more popular than ever. But the virus isn't the only thing that grows at an exponential rate. Using data from the Austrian Institute for SME Research, I estimate that 30% of Austria's small shops will have gone out of business by May 2, when they are supposed to reopen. The economic pain increases over time. For every additional day of lockdown, the damage grows exponentially.

---

Ms. Kolm is President of the Friedrich A. v. Hayek Institute, director of the Austrian Economics Center, and vice president of the Austrian National Bank.


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  #5455  
Old 04-09-2020, 01:52 PM
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Thanks for the updates campbell
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  #5456  
Old 04-09-2020, 02:15 PM
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Reopen everything with a total lock down of seniors homes seems reasonable.
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  #5457  
Old 04-09-2020, 02:20 PM
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Interesting. Austria had their peak of daily new cases on March 26 and their peak of active cases on April 3 (8 days later) and have had a steady decline in active cases since. New York state looks like it peaked with new cases on April 4, so if it follows the same curve, it is about 9 days behind.

Of course there are lot of differences between the two regions and if NY follows Austria it will have a 9 day warning in case the Austrian authorities start to yell out "Shut it down!"

Last edited by Knoath; 04-09-2020 at 02:34 PM..
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  #5458  
Old 04-09-2020, 02:29 PM
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Interesting. Austria had their peak of daily new cases on March 26 and their peak of active cases on April 4 (8 days later) and have had a steady decline in active cases since. New York state looks like it peaked with new cases on April 4, so if it follows the same curve, it is about 9 days behind.

Of course there are lot of differences between the two regions and if NY follows Austria it will have a 9 day warning in case the Austrian authorities start to yell out "Shut it down!"
Well, at least with Austria [and South Korea and....] I will believe the #s.

It will be useful to see how the trajectory goes
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  #5459  
Old 04-09-2020, 02:39 PM
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Austria and South Korea were both big on masks. Maybe that will end up being the critical change.
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  #5460  
Old 04-09-2020, 05:34 PM
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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...195-X/fulltext

Death rate of a growing disease that's calculated as deaths/cases today is understated, because it should be deaths/cases when those who died were infected.

Quote:
the median time from onset of symptoms to intensive care unit (ICU) admission is around 10 days.3, 4 Recently, WHO reported that the time between symptom onset and death ranged from about 2 weeks to 8 weeks.
Lagging the "infections" by two weeks gives a much higher estimate of mortality. That number and the WHO estimates are converging, however.

Quote:
We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 56% (95% CI 54–58) for China and 152% (125–179) outside of China. Global mortality rates over time using a 14-day delay estimate are shown in the figure, with a curve that levels off to a rate of 57% (55–59), converging with the current WHO estimates. Estimates will increase if a longer delay between onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.6 These findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients.
(Note that this does ignore the "never known" mild and asymptomatic cases, however.)
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